The impact of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on various countries
0. Iran's extreme dependence on the Strait of Hormuz (lifeline for exports), Iran's daily crude oil exports are about 1.7-1.8 million barrels (pre-war level, accounting for about 1.7-2% of the global total), over 90% must pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the Persian Gulf → Indian Ocean → mainly sold to China (accounting for over 90% of Iran's exports).
1. China accounts for 37.7% of the total crude oil exports through the strait, making it the largest buyer. Under a full blockade, the daily gap could be closer to 4-6 million barrels (about 35%-50% of total imports).
2. Japan: the highest dependence, the most severe impact (one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia). Under a full blockade, Japan could face a daily supply gap of 1.5-2 million barrels (accounting for over 70% of total imports).
3. South Korea: second highest dependence, the entire industrial chain under pressure (the OECD's most oil-dependent country), with 70-71% of crude oil imports coming from the Middle East, of which about 65-70% passes through Hormuz.
4. The United States: almost no supply risk, rather a "relative beneficiary". The U.S. is the world's largest crude oil producer and net exporter (with net imports expected to be only 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025). Crude oil from Hormuz accounts for a very small portion of U.S. imports (only 2.5% of the global strait flow goes to the U.S./Americas, and the share of Persian Gulf oil imports has dropped to about 8%). The impact of Middle Eastern oil on the U.S. is negligible.
5. Russia's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is almost zero. For Russia, this Hormuz crisis is not a threat but a strategic opportunity: without a single soldier, it has reaped the "triple dividend" of high oil prices, eased sanctions, and a shift in global attention.
Overall ranking summary (negative impact from large to small): Iran (self-destruction) >> Japan >> South Korea >> China >> United States ≈ Russia (the latter even profits). $DEGO
