• The trust of society in economic and political institutions has been put to the test, and those who work for the state must focus on key tasks.
• Disinflation in the services sector continues; long-term inflation expectations generally align with the target of 2%.
• The baseline scenario is that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived.
• Price increases for goods are primarily related to tariffs rather than broad price pressures.
• Over 12 months, August inflation for the PCE index was about 2.7%, core PCE was 2.3%; both measures are higher than last year's and are driven by rising goods prices.
• Consumer spending has decreased, and businesses indicate that uncertainty is pressuring prospects.
• An unusual and difficult decline in both demand and supply of labor.
• The labor market has become less dynamic and somewhat weakened.
• Inflation has risen and remains somewhat elevated.
• Economic growth has slowed, and employment reduction risks have increased.
• Long-term inflation expectations align with the 2% target.
• He reiterated: there is no path ahead without risks.
• It will be ensured that a one-time price increase does not turn into a persistent inflation problem.
• The increase in tariffs is likely to manifest as somewhat higher inflation over several quarters.
• The U.S. economy shows resilience amid significant changes in trade and immigration policy, as well as in fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical areas.
• In the first half of the year, GDP grew by about 1.5% compared to 2.5% a year earlier; the slowdown is mainly due to weakened consumer spending.
• The housing sector remains weak, but business investment in equipment and intangible assets has increased compared to last year.
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with employment growing much slower: an average of +29,000 jobs per month over the last three months, below the level needed to keep unemployment stable.
• At the same time, a number of labor market indicators remain stable: the ratio of job openings to unemployed is close to 1, and indicators of job openings and unemployment claims are moving sideways.
• The core PCE index in August was 2.9% year on year, compared to 2.3% a year earlier; price increases are driven by goods, while services, including housing, continue to show disinflation.
• Inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, making policy choices particularly challenging.
• The current rate is still moderately restrictive, allowing for flexible responses to new economic conditions.
• The "Beige Book" showed moderate growth. The economy is growing, but not quickly.
• The interest rate remains relatively high.
• There are currently no heightened risks to financial stability.
• Banks are well capitalized.
• Households are generally in good shape.
• A number of assets are valued above historical levels; stocks are valued quite high.
• The Fed does not aim to manage the prices of financial assets.
• Artificial intelligence will lead to some jobs disappearing, while others will be transformed.
