Chairman Powell's speech on economic indicators can generally be divided into three key points.
The first reason can be articulated, the second relates to the current situation, and the third broadly discusses some goals and approaches.
Due to tariff news, short-term inflation expectations have risen this year. However, over the next year or so, most long-term expectation indicators still align with our 2% inflation target.
The significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies' impact on the overall economy remain to be seen. A reasonable baseline scenario is that the tariffs' impact on inflation will be relatively short-lived—a one-time change in price levels. A "one-time" increase does not mean "all at once." Tariff increases may take some time to manifest in the supply chain. Therefore, this one-time price level increase may be spread over several quarters, showing as slightly higher inflation during that period.
However, uncertainty regarding inflation trends remains high. We will carefully assess and manage the risks of rising and persistent inflation. We will ensure that one-time price increases do not evolve into a sustained inflation issue.
Monetary policy:
Short-term inflation risks are skewed upwards, while employment risks are skewed downwards—this is a challenging situation. The dual risks mean there is no risk-free path. If we loosen policy too aggressively, we might fail to meet the inflation target, necessitating a reversal of policy direction to fully restore the 2% inflation target. If we maintain restrictive policies for too long, the labor market could experience unnecessary weakness. When our targets face such tight conditions, our framework requires us to maintain balance at both ends of our dual mandate.
The source of this message is the Federal Government Funding Council. #加密市场回调
The general idea behind monetary policy construction is mainly to maintain its overly optimistic unrealistic nature, with ideal indexes exceeding actual conditions.