✔️Yesterday:
- The futures on the index 🇺🇸S&P 500 fell on Thursday by 🔴1.24% to 6680 points. The high-tech 🇺🇸Nasdaq 100 plunged by 🔴1.51% to 24,545 points. The industrial 🇺🇸Dow Jones closed in the red by 🔴1.25% around 46,729 points.
- A wave of sell-offs hit almost everyone. Out of 11 sectors, only 3 were in the green - oil and gas, utilities, and consumer staples. 🇺🇸Chevron (CVX) 🟢+2.70%, 🇺🇸Exxon Mobil (XOM) 🟢+1.29%, 🇺🇸Duke Energy (DUK) 🟢+1.38%, 🇺🇸Walmart (WMT) 🟢+1.49%, 🇺🇸Costco (COST) 🟢+1.12%.
- This is a rotation into classic defensive stocks, plus a play on the escalation in 🇮🇷Iran through the oil sector. Investors were fleeing fastest from the stocks of semiconductor producers, financial and defense companies. 🇺🇸Intel (INTC) 🔴-5.69%, 🇺🇸AMD 🔴-3.46%, 🇺🇸Morgan Stanley (MS) 🔴-4.05%, 🇺🇸Goldman Sachs (GS) 🔴-4.40%, 🇺🇸GE Aerospace (GE) 🔴-5.67%, 🇺🇸Boeing (BA) 🔴-4.36%.
- Yesterday saw the first speech of the new Supreme Leader of 🇮🇷Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei. It is hard to imagine more hardline statements. He called for the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. To close all 🇺🇸U.S. bases in the region. He threatened to open new fronts of combat operations. To avenge the fallen. And to seek damages.
- 🇺🇸Donald Trump responded dimly. He called 🇮🇷Khamenei a weak politician. That 🇺🇸the U.S. will profit from high oil prices. And that the war will end soon, as there are no more targets for strikes in 🇮🇷Iran. This is disingenuous. The main problem — the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz — remains unresolved. And judging by the statements of American senators, 🇺🇸Washington does not know how to do this.
- Brent oil yesterday surged by 🟢8.68% to $101.95. Joint interventions by G7 countries will begin on Monday. 🇺🇸The U.S. Treasury announced a temporary lifting of sanctions on part of 🇷🇺Russian oil. This should curb the 📈price increase for some time. But traders are looking ahead. And they see rising inflation risks.
- Their quintessence is a risky forecast from 🇺🇸Goldman Sachs about 🛢oil at $150 per barrel of Brent by the end of March if the Strait of Hormuz is not unlocked. 🇺🇸Trump may consider 🇮🇷Khamenei weak, but if the Hormuz traffic depends on the Iranian leader, then in the long run he is stronger than the president of 🇺🇸the U.S. Openly or behind the scenes, 🇺🇸Trump will have to negotiate with 🇮🇷Tehran.
- Investors are starting to understand this. They see the administration's attempts at the 🇺🇸White House to avoid an unpleasant conversation. The solution to the problem is dragging on. And investors are selling.
- There has been a deterioration in the actions of major players again. After an outflow from the 🇺🇸SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) of 🔴$10.3 billion six weeks ago and 🔴$9.56 billion two weeks ago, over the past week, large investors withdrew 🔴$14.0 billion from 🇺🇸SPY. This Monday-Wednesday, an outflow from 🇺🇸SPY of 🔴$1.8 billion was recorded. This is a small amount. But the overall direction is clear. Major investors 📉are leaving.
- Besides geopolitical problems, difficulties in the financial sector are mounting. Yesterday, 🇺🇸Morgan Stanley had to announce restrictions on withdrawals from its private lending fund, 🇺🇸North Haven Private Income Fund. In the first quarter, investors submitted requests to withdraw 🔴10.9% of funds with a limit of 5.0%.
- This is already the fifth fund that has faced an influx of investors in the last three weeks. Before it were 🇺🇸Blue Owl Capital, 🇺🇸BlackRock, 🇺🇸Cliffwater, and 🇺🇸HPS Investment Partners. They all have the same problem. It may already be a systemic liquidity shortage in the private lending sector, amounting to $1.8-2.0 trillion.
- Against this backdrop, 🇺🇸JPMorgan (JPM) yesterday announced tightening lending conditions for such funds. This means that infected companies will now find it harder to hide their problems. The main borrowers in the sector are software companies. They may become the next targets in the chain. Investors are increasingly drawing parallels with the situation in 2007 before the global financial crisis.
- The report from 🇺🇸Adobe (ADBE) 🔴-1.43% came at just the right time. The financial results exceeded the forecasts of 🇺🇸Wall Street both in revenue and profit. But management acknowledged that part of the business faced a more severe 📉drop in sales than expected due to the development of generative AI.
- Perhaps it is with these new challenges for the company that the departure of CEO 🇺🇸Shantanu Narayen is connected. He led 🇺🇸Adobe for 18 years. There is no successor yet. This raises investors' concerns about the company's future and its ability to integrate into new trends. In pre-market, 🇺🇸ADBE is down by 🔴8.6%.
✔️Today:
- In the morning, the futures on the 🇺🇸S&P 500 index are falling again by 🔴0.37% to 6655 points. The benchmark is a step away from breaking the 📈rising price model. If it happens, the basic target will be 6480-6580. 🇺🇸Nasdaq 100 is down by 🔴0.41%. 🇺🇸Dow Jones is losing 🔴0.31%.
- Geopolitical pressure on the American stock market is increasing. Last weekend there was an escalation, from which 🛢oil 📈spiked to $119.67 per barrel of Brent. Futures on stock indices 📉plummeted by 🔴2.0% or more. Traders are afraid of a repeat.
- 🛢Oil is rising today by another 🟢0.61% to $102.52. Last Friday there was also 📈an increase. If 🇺🇸the White House does not provide hope for de-escalation, there could be a 🔴bloody bath as markets close. Investors will cut risks before the weekend.
- In terms of macro statistics, today at 15:30 Moscow time, the final estimate of 🇺🇸U.S. GDP for the 4th quarter will be released. 🇺🇸Wall Street is expecting confirmation of a slowdown in growth from 4.4% to 1.4% due to the record shutdown at the end of 2025. This is already in prices. The most important for the market could have been the 🇺🇸personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. But today data for January will be published. They are already outdated.
- The background is quite grim. 🔴Bloody Friday the 13th. Only one person can turn it into 🟢green. 🇺🇸Donald Trump just needs to announce the end of military operations in 🇮🇷Iran.