After stripping out the long-ETF / short-CME trade, the relationship still holds:

Every $1B of true directional ETF flow = about a 5.4% move in $BTC .

More important, the power-law elasticity did not break.
β stayed at 0.27.

Paper can exaggerate the move.
It can speed it up.
It can reverse it fast when the trade unwinds.
But it cannot replace true spot demand.

From Nov 2025 to Feb 2026, ETF outflows totaled $9.6B.

About $4.7B was basis unwind.
Only about $4.9B was true directional selling.

So nearly half the selling was mechanical.
Just carry trades exiting.