According to information as of March 2025, the circulating supply of Tonkoin (TON) was about 2.5 billion TON. A large-scale token unlock was planned for March 2025, with a total increase expected to be around 16.13 million new TON (approximately 50 million dollars at current exchange rates).
In April 2025, the TON Foundation and Libre launched a tokenized bond fund worth $500 million, the largest in the real tokenized assets (RWA) segment.
In short — the unlocking of 16,13 million TON with a circulating supply of ~2.5 billion hardly changes the price theory (this is ≈0.645% increase in supply). All else being equal (no one sells) the net effect of the unlocking is a price drop of about 0.6%.
Basic calculation:
- Current price: $2.74
- New circulating supply = 2,500,000,000 + 16,130,000 = 2,516,130,000 TON
- In the case of net dilution (no sales) the new price ≈ 2.74 * (2.5 / 2.51613) ≈ $2.72
Scenarios (estimative, not financial advice):
1) Practically no sales (unlocking is held/reinvested or bought by the RWA fund): approximately $2.72 — $3.50 (upside possible due to the positive effect of the RWA fund).
2) Moderate sale (for example, 25–50% of unlocked tokens are sold on the market): additional short-term downward momentum ~1–5% above net dilution → price approximately $2.60 — $2.70.
3) Strong sell-off + bad market (panic/low liquidity): a more serious pullback is possible, realistically within $1.5 — $2.4 (extreme, low-probability options during a simultaneous overall market crash).
4) Very bullish outcome (RWA fund buys a significant share, alt season, good news): the price may rise — a realistically optimistic upper limit after unlocking ~$5–6 (in an extremely optimistic and rare case — higher, but that is already unlikely).
— the minimally realistic scenario after unlocking: approximately $1.5 (extreme negative), the most likely range: $2.5 — $3.5, maximum realistic bullish scenario: ~$5–6.
Why such intervals:
- The unlocking itself is very small (≈0.645%) — the direct effect is minimal.
- Keys — the share of unlocked tokens, how much will be sold immediately, market liquidity, and the overall dynamics of the crypto market, as well as demand from the RWA fund.
