The focus now is entirely on BTC's consolidation around $74,000. Today's situation is very special because today is March 18, 2026 - the day of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) interest rate decision announcement.
1. Why is BTC stagnant at $74,000?
"The calm before the storm": Global big funds are waiting for Powell's speech tonight (Beijing time tomorrow morning). $74,000 is currently the balance point of the bullish and bearish contest.
Chip turnover: The pullback after reaching $76,000 did not trigger a large volume drop, indicating that the buying power at this level remains strong. Everyone is betting that the Federal Reserve will release a dovish signal of 'maintaining interest rate cut expectations.'
2. What should be the next move? (Three scenarios)
Script A: Fed shows 'dovish' stance (bullish)
Signal: Powell hinted that even with inflationary pressures, the rate cut path for 2026 remains unchanged.
Action: If BTC suddenly spikes above $75,500, you can ride the wave long. Target is $80,000. In this case, don't be afraid of heights, as there are no trapped positions above the new high.
Stop Loss: Set around $73,500.
Script B: Fed shows 'hawkish' stance (bearish)
Signal: Powell emphasized that high oil prices raise inflation concerns, hinting that interest rate cuts may be delayed.
Action: If BTC breaks down with volume below $72,800, you can take a small short position. This indicates that $76,000 is a temporary top, with a pullback target of at least $68,000 - $69,000.
Stop Loss: Set around $74,500.
Script C: Sideways 'Pin Bar' washout (highest probability)
Performance: The announcement caused an immediate spike to $76,000, then within 10 minutes it dropped to $72,000, finally settling back at $74,000.
Action: Stay in cash (Hold Cash). This is the safest strategy. No need to gamble on a two-way liquidation in the unclear direction of the night.
Hands off, wait for the decision: Don't stack heavy before the announcement at 02:00 Beijing time tonight. The current volatility is to 'hunt' early entrants with leverage.
Watch 'resistance turn support': If BTC can quickly bounce back after testing $73,800 a few times, it indicates strong support, and after some oscillation, it's likely to break upwards. #比特币突破7.5万美元 $BTC $ETH