The Federal Reserve: rate unchanged, but the signal is tough
The Federal Reserve kept the rate at 3.75% — the decision matched market expectations.
• One of the Fed members voted for a decrease of 25 b.p.
• The regulator continues QE (bond purchases)
• The economy remains stable, but inflation is still above the target
• Uncertainty remains high (including due to geopolitics)
• GDP: upward revision (growth continues)
• PCE inflation: ~2.7% in 2026, return to 2% only by 2028
• Rate: the market now expects fewer cuts
→ in 2026, only 1 step of –25 b.p. is possible
The Fed makes it clear:
softening will be slow and limited.
For the markets, this is a neutral-negative signal:
liquidity is in no hurry to return → pressure on risk assets may persist.