🚨 THE US-IRAN WAR WILL LIKELY END BY NEXT WEEK.
And markets are starting to price it.
Just a week ago, I told you that US-Iran will be over in 1-2 weeks and US Oil prices won't go above $120 again.
Since then, a lot of signs of de-escalation have emerged, so take a look.
First, look at bond yields.
US 10-year yields are again moving close to 4.4%–4.5%. This level has repeatedly forced policy reactions.
In April 2025, when yields moved higher, tariffs were paused.
Later in the year, trade deals were pushed to calm markets.
Higher yields tighten financial conditions very quickly. They increase borrowing costs, pressure equities, and slow down the economy.
That is why governments usually step in when yields move too fast.
Right now we are again near that zone. So the probability of some form of market relief action is increasing.
Second, look at oil and inflation.
Earlier, oil prices spiked because of supply disruption and fear around Hormuz. That pushed inflation expectations higher.
Now a key shift is happening.
The US has allowed around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil to move.