I watched this news and my palms were sweating.
The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's crude oil trade passes through. Trump has given Iran a 48-hour ultimatum - either reopen the strait or the U.S. will 'strike and destroy' Iran's energy infrastructure.
Iran has directly refused.
Brent crude has soared above $105, and gold prices have started to fluctuate, with global markets holding their breath waiting for these 48 hours to pass.
To be honest, this situation is much more stimulating than the gold crash in February. Back then, market makers were playing with retail investors, now it's real geopolitical games with live ammunition. Missiles have already been fired - Iran launched an attack on southern Israel, injuring over 100 people; Israel conducted airstrikes on targets in Tehran. The Natanz nuclear facility has become a potential target, and international monitoring agencies have started issuing warnings.
This is not a joke.
Think about it, if the Strait of Hormuz is really choked off, even if it's only partially restricted, how will global oil prices react? $105 is just the starting point. Inflationary pressures will transmit to all markets—stock markets, bond markets, crypto markets, there won't be a single one that can escape.
The UK, France, Germany, and Japan have all expressed their intention to support ensuring safe passage through the strait. But the problem is, Iran is not buying into this. Foreign Minister Zarif made it clear: restrictions only apply to hostile nations; neutral ships can pass.
In translation, it means—if you threaten me, I will refuse to let you pass.
Trump's move of the '48-hour ultimatum' is a typical form of extreme pressure, following a previous pattern. But this time, Iran clearly does not intend to back down. There has already been military action, with missiles and airstrikes initiated. In the next 48 hours, no one knows if there will be an accidental spark.
What I'm most concerned about now is: if it really escalates into conflict, how high can gold go? Will oil directly break 120?
If you have open positions, don't sleep during these 48 hours. This wave of market movement cannot be sustained by technicals; it is genuine geopolitical risk pushing it. Cut positions if you need to, hedge if necessary, don't wait until missiles fall to react.
By the way, this situation reminds me of last year's Middle East crisis, which also involved an ultimatum, mutual missile launches, and soaring oil prices. Will history repeat itself? I think this time is more severe than last time—because both sides have drawn their red lines more strictly.
48 hours, the countdown has already begun. Get your positions ready; this week is destined to be turbulent.