Trump said "Iran is talking to him", which is essentially not information disclosure, but a signal of game theory release. When a hardliner after extreme pressure begins to actively release the signal that "the other side is talking", it indicates two things: first, the conflict has reached a marginal constraint, and the cost of further escalation is rising rapidly; second, internal and external pressures are beginning to force it to seek a way to step down.
This is almost the same script as the rhythm of the China-U.S. trade war in April 2025: at that time, tariffs were pushed to over 100%, approaching "half-decoupling", but just at the tightest stage, Trump began to intensively suggest "China is talking". The Chinese side clearly denied it, but the key is not in "whether there is talk", but in "why he says there is talk". Essentially, both economic constraints (inflation, corporate costs, market fluctuations) and political constraints (elections, industries, allies) are simultaneously rising, and the opponent has actually obtained bargaining chips and entered the "negotiable range".
The difference this time is that he added a 5-day time window for "easing expectations," which essentially sets a short-term stability range artificially. This action is crucial, indicating that market volatility has become a strong constraint variable for him. He can continue to release strong emotions over the weekend, but at least during this window period, he does not wish for the market environment to deteriorate further.
So the real signal here is not whether "Iran is negotiating or not," but rather: the situation has shifted from "unilateral uncontrolled escalation" to "bounded game and expectation management." From a trading perspective, this usually corresponds to a phase risk turning point issue that has not been resolved, but the worst linear extrapolation has already ended.
The essence is still the same cycle: extreme pressure on the market, panic pricing actively releases easing signals, enters into a tug-of-war negotiation period, and ultimately converges into some form of compromise. What truly needs to be wary of is if one day even the signal of "talks ongoing" is no longer released, that would mean the situation may enter an uncontrollable phase.