Almost all of March, Bitcoin is leaving centralized exchanges. Not a day, not two, but a whole month of pure outflow. The only spike in deposits was on March 17, when the price went to 76,000, but quickly returned to its previous course.
š»CryptoQuant analyst under the nickname Darkfost points out that this is not a one-time event, but a trend. Investors are buying and withdrawing coins to cold wallets. And they do this systematically.
When bitcoin enters the exchange, it often indicates preparation for a sale. When it exits the exchange, it means the holder does not plan to get rid of the asset in the near future. The supply in the market decreases, and if demand remains or increases, this is a direct path to a price rise.
šDirector of LVRG Research Nick Rak calls this 'real long-term accumulation, not short-term speculation.' People are not hedging against downturns, but are taking coins into personal ownership.
BTSE exchange's COO Jeff May adds one more detail. Since the escalation in the Middle East, crypto has been performing better than stocks and gold. I donāt hold much crypto at the moment; Iām waiting for bitcoin to be around 55k, then I will buy for the long term. Currently, Iām day trading crypto. The market was oversold before the conflict, so now itās not falling as sharply as the stock market. May sees this as a sign that bitcoin is gradually becoming a hedge against traditional markets.
š½Glassnode in its weekly report confirms: unrealized losses in the market have slightly decreased, but sentiments are still fluctuating. This is related to the conflict, no one knows what will happen tomorrow, every hour brings different news, sometimes an agreement, sometimes rockets again. Why can't we take these millions of dollars and invest them in African countries where people drink from puddles? Right, because these bastards at the top of power think only about their own pockets.
Data indicates an increase in the number of wallets with a balance of 1 to 10 BTC. This is a category where retail and small institutions usually sit. Not whales, but those who take the asset for the long term.
An important nuance. Spot bitcoin ETFs are showing mixed dynamics. On March 6, there was an outflow of 227 million, but by the end of the week, inflows returned. This indicates that different groups of investors operate on different time horizons. ETFs can revolve around macro factors and portfolio rebalancing, while direct withdrawals from exchanges to cold storage.
Analysts agree that demand is currently not strong enough for a full-fledged rally. But the fact of a monthly outflow is a structural signal. If the trend continues for some time, and demand from ETFs or institutions increases, we may see a classic scenario of supply compression followed by a price spike.
Tomorrow I plan to trade, if there are entry points, I will share the dealsš