In $BTC this white box, I made three long trades, and all three hit stop losses. For the first time in three months, I experienced 【three consecutive stop losses】. Because I kept hitting stop losses, my leverage and position sizes increased, leading to larger stop loss amounts. It wasn't until today that I finally calmed down completely.

What exactly am I competing against? Isn't it better to take two short positions in this range where I'm skilled? Isn't it nice to just take a break for two days without holding a position?
Give up the last segment of a bullish tail that may or may not exist, wait for the price to rise to a high level, and then aggressively build a short position; or patiently wait for a break below the major support line and then short on the rebound. These are clearly more certain trading opportunities.
Why must one be obsessed with going long?

I remember the end of October last year, $BTC When it rebounded to 115000, I started to short comprehensively. At that time, I was chatting with a trader friend who only goes long. I expressed my fully bearish stance to him and advised him that if he still wanted to go long, it would be better to take a month off. If the market stabilizes later, it wouldn't be too late to re-enter; if the trend completely deteriorates, he could just consider it an early vacation. He agreed well on the phone at that time.
A month later, he confided in me that he had been stop-lossing while going long for the entire month, and later simply held on and added positions, almost getting liquidated in the end. He lost nearly 90% of the profits he made during the three-year bull market, effectively ending up with just a little hard-earned money.
Now I see clearly that the major cycle has turned bearish. If I had maintained a cash position and done nothing during this month, I would have preserved my profits and understood the trend.

I recall September of last year, where I was both anticipating another round of bull madness while also filled with doubts about the many contradictions in the market. My first instinct was to simply take a two-month break and not participate in the last phase. But due to greed and attachment to the market, I stayed. Fortunately, I balanced the risk, reducing my position capital by two-thirds in the last two months and always keeping a stop-loss, which allowed me to narrowly survive on October 11.

In the three months after 2026, my trading has indeed been too smooth, repeatedly profiting from both long and short positions. It made me feel like I could profit from any market condition. My own awareness has gradually slackened; I can perceive that my awareness has become lax, and achieving this state is indeed very difficult...

How many once unparalleled and invincible traders have quickly fallen due to a moment of overconfidence in a short time? In the end, it was never a loss to technique; it was always a defeat to human nature and emotions.

In the face of human nature, mentality, and emotions, technique is truly too insignificant.
Trading ultimately comes down to trading against one's own human nature.

When any aspect of the market, emotion, or mentality makes you feel restless or increases entropy, always remember the highest realm and wisdom of trading — the method of keeping cash.

This is merely an infinitely repetitive probability game. Whenever this game causes you any displeasure, always remember that you have the right to choose at any time — I won't play anymore.

———— These are just some musings, let's encourage each other.