0x桐灿
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Forgot to drop the square again... Syncing up the trading strategies and operations from the past couple of days. $BTC $ETH
Opened both long and short positions around 76,000, $BTC . Currently, stop-loss on the short, holding onto the long.
The candlestick didn't break 79,560 decisively, so there's a chance of a 2B fakeout. If it breaks, the 2B pattern will fail.
February's monthly high is 79,400. In previous bear market rebound scenarios, there tends to be a sweep of the previous month's highs before a dip at the end of the month. Plus, the 1.272 level is right at 79,560, only 160 points away from 79,400. So this is poised to be a crucial battleground for both bulls and bears...
The CME futures gap is 79,700—84,000. This is also the important watershed mentioned earlier for trend reversal and the next resistance zone. If we enter and stabilize in this range, the probability of a sustained bullish trend will significantly increase.
—— For reference.
The candlestick didn't break 79,560 decisively, so there's a chance of a 2B fakeout. If it breaks, the 2B pattern will fail.
February's monthly high is 79,400. In previous bear market rebound scenarios, there tends to be a sweep of the previous month's highs before a dip at the end of the month. Plus, the 1.272 level is right at 79,560, only 160 points away from 79,400. So this is poised to be a crucial battleground for both bulls and bears...
The CME futures gap is 79,700—84,000. This is also the important watershed mentioned earlier for trend reversal and the next resistance zone. If we enter and stabilize in this range, the probability of a sustained bullish trend will significantly increase.
—— For reference.
Remind everyone. $BTC last night's pin short callback was actually a retest of the annual VWAP, and then after forming a platform there, it continued to rise.
$BTC from the current bull peak of 126,000 to the low point of 59,000 on February 6, the VWAP is 84,000. The upper limit of the Vegas channel is currently around 81,000. The volume's VAL and POC are around 81,000 to 87,000.
The price range above will not break through and stabilize during the bear market's rebound.
Also, the gap above the CME futures is between 80,000 and 81,000. In past bear markets, there has been no situation where the daily level gap was filled upwards, only during bull pullbacks.
So here forms a price resonance zone—【80,000-84,000 range】, which is the 【important watershed for trend reversal】.
If $BTC stabilizes in this range, I will consider it a trend reversal.
Whether the four-year cycle has really been broken, and whether this is truly the beginning of a new bull market is still unknown.
But afterwards, at least it is certain that a rising trend is to be followed.
——The above is for reference.
$BTC from the current bull peak of 126,000 to the low point of 59,000 on February 6, the VWAP is 84,000. The upper limit of the Vegas channel is currently around 81,000. The volume's VAL and POC are around 81,000 to 87,000.
The price range above will not break through and stabilize during the bear market's rebound.
Also, the gap above the CME futures is between 80,000 and 81,000. In past bear markets, there has been no situation where the daily level gap was filled upwards, only during bull pullbacks.
So here forms a price resonance zone—【80,000-84,000 range】, which is the 【important watershed for trend reversal】.
If $BTC stabilizes in this range, I will consider it a trend reversal.
Whether the four-year cycle has really been broken, and whether this is truly the beginning of a new bull market is still unknown.
But afterwards, at least it is certain that a rising trend is to be followed.
——The above is for reference.
The consensus for shorting here is really strong.
$BTC The spot CVD has been running, but the contract CVD has been entering the market, and the funding rate is very negative. Currently, it is a typical short squeeze market. It won't be easy to go down here for a while, and we still need to grind the top to force the short squeeze.
$BTC The spot CVD has been running, but the contract CVD has been entering the market, and the funding rate is very negative. Currently, it is a typical short squeeze market. It won't be easy to go down here for a while, and we still need to grind the top to force the short squeeze.
$BTC 😀
$BTC is too weak, the long position taken over the weekend has hit the stop loss, and I will not consider going long for now.
The decline is very smooth. I took profits on three-quarters of the positions for the short orders of $BTC and $ETH here, leaving a small position to continue holding.
As for my overall trading strategy moving forward, let me share with everyone:
This week, I expect a minor adjustment, but I believe the larger upward trend is not finished yet, so I am treating this short order as a medium-term position without a larger framework. If there is a subsequent pullback that stabilizes, I will follow the original plan to open long positions again, aiming for a new high of 79,000.
In my view, $BTC should not break the white support line with a solid bar; at most, it can briefly break below and then recover.
If a solid bar breaks below the white support line, it may indicate an early end to the larger upward trend; in that case, I will promptly adjust my strategy, waiting for a pullback to re-enter short positions, aiming for the larger short positions of 70,000 to 55,000.
From last Friday to this Monday, I firmly held onto long positions between 70,000 and 74,000, and I took profits cleanly on Monday; by Tuesday, I opened short positions again and made a profit between 74,000 and 70,000.
Compared to those who returned to the original point after holding long positions last week, I have effectively captured two segments of the market, and I am quite satisfied with that.
——————The above is for reference.
As for my overall trading strategy moving forward, let me share with everyone:
This week, I expect a minor adjustment, but I believe the larger upward trend is not finished yet, so I am treating this short order as a medium-term position without a larger framework. If there is a subsequent pullback that stabilizes, I will follow the original plan to open long positions again, aiming for a new high of 79,000.
In my view, $BTC should not break the white support line with a solid bar; at most, it can briefly break below and then recover.
If a solid bar breaks below the white support line, it may indicate an early end to the larger upward trend; in that case, I will promptly adjust my strategy, waiting for a pullback to re-enter short positions, aiming for the larger short positions of 70,000 to 55,000.
From last Friday to this Monday, I firmly held onto long positions between 70,000 and 74,000, and I took profits cleanly on Monday; by Tuesday, I opened short positions again and made a profit between 74,000 and 70,000.
Compared to those who returned to the original point after holding long positions last week, I have effectively captured two segments of the market, and I am quite satisfied with that.
——————The above is for reference.
The decline is very smooth. I took profits on three-quarters of the positions for the short orders of $BTC and $ETH here, leaving a small position to continue holding.
As for my overall trading strategy moving forward, let me share with everyone:
This week, I expect a minor adjustment, but I believe the larger upward trend is not finished yet, so I am treating this short order as a medium-term position without a larger framework. If there is a subsequent pullback that stabilizes, I will follow the original plan to open long positions again, aiming for a new high of 79,000.
In my view, $BTC should not break the white support line with a solid bar; at most, it can briefly break below and then recover.
If a solid bar breaks below the white support line, it may indicate an early end to the larger upward trend; in that case, I will promptly adjust my strategy, waiting for a pullback to re-enter short positions, aiming for the larger short positions of 70,000 to 55,000.
From last Friday to this Monday, I firmly held onto long positions between 70,000 and 74,000, and I took profits cleanly on Monday; by Tuesday, I opened short positions again and made a profit between 74,000 and 70,000.
Compared to those who returned to the original point after holding long positions last week, I have effectively captured two segments of the market, and I am quite satisfied with that.
——————The above is for reference.
As for my overall trading strategy moving forward, let me share with everyone:
This week, I expect a minor adjustment, but I believe the larger upward trend is not finished yet, so I am treating this short order as a medium-term position without a larger framework. If there is a subsequent pullback that stabilizes, I will follow the original plan to open long positions again, aiming for a new high of 79,000.
In my view, $BTC should not break the white support line with a solid bar; at most, it can briefly break below and then recover.
If a solid bar breaks below the white support line, it may indicate an early end to the larger upward trend; in that case, I will promptly adjust my strategy, waiting for a pullback to re-enter short positions, aiming for the larger short positions of 70,000 to 55,000.
From last Friday to this Monday, I firmly held onto long positions between 70,000 and 74,000, and I took profits cleanly on Monday; by Tuesday, I opened short positions again and made a profit between 74,000 and 70,000.
Compared to those who returned to the original point after holding long positions last week, I have effectively captured two segments of the market, and I am quite satisfied with that.
——————The above is for reference.
On Monday, I synchronized with everyone on Twitter: My personal $BTC and $ETH long positions were closed here for profit. Looking at 79,000, but this week is very likely to have a phase adjustment.
In the small group's live broadcast, I also detailed the reasons: $BTC is likely to undergo a secondary adjustment after entering the 74,000—76,000 range.
First, it cleans up those bulls who entered at 74,000; second, it again lures shorts who want to enter long positions here through a secondary adjustment.
You can choose not to engage in this 【short position on pullback】, but it is definitely more prudent to take profits on long positions here first.
Next, patiently observe the pullback stabilization and find opportunities to re-enter long positions.
In any case, having short positions allows for both offense and defense.
——————The above is for reference.
In the small group's live broadcast, I also detailed the reasons: $BTC is likely to undergo a secondary adjustment after entering the 74,000—76,000 range.
First, it cleans up those bulls who entered at 74,000; second, it again lures shorts who want to enter long positions here through a secondary adjustment.
You can choose not to engage in this 【short position on pullback】, but it is definitely more prudent to take profits on long positions here first.
Next, patiently observe the pullback stabilization and find opportunities to re-enter long positions.
In any case, having short positions allows for both offense and defense.
——————The above is for reference.
It's not easy, on Friday, when $BTC reached around 73800 without taking profit, I firmly believe that $BTC will break 74000. These past two days have been a steady increase, and it finally broke. The leverage on long positions is very high, so let's not overthink it here.
Looking at 79000, but there might be a larger wave-like fluctuation upwards afterwards, I don't want to ride a roller coaster anymore. Personally, I prefer to wait for a pullback and stabilization at a lower level before adding back to long positions. Taking it step by step.
———— For reference.
Looking at 79000, but there might be a larger wave-like fluctuation upwards afterwards, I don't want to ride a roller coaster anymore. Personally, I prefer to wait for a pullback and stabilization at a lower level before adding back to long positions. Taking it step by step.
———— For reference.
Let's talk about the market here: $BTC74000 is highly likely not the rebound top of this round, and the avoidance of short trends may reach around 79000.
Here is my personal analysis and understanding of the market:
1. This week, many domestic and overseas KOLs and metaphysics bloggers on Twitter are discussing the trend of $BTC from late May to early June 2022 — that is, 74000 is the rebound top, and in the next few days, it will create a daily LH and then continue to initiate a large-scale decline. This has almost become the publicly recognized 'cognitive trend' across the internet.
I personally started shorting comprehensively from late October at $BTC 116000, when the market was still at the bull-bear boundary, and many people were firmly believing that the bull market had not ended, resulting in significant market divergence. That was the first battle between the first batch of short sellers and the strong bulls.
1. This week, many domestic and overseas KOLs and metaphysics bloggers on Twitter are discussing the trend of $BTC from late May to early June 2022 — that is, 74000 is the rebound top, and in the next few days, it will create a daily LH and then continue to initiate a large-scale decline. This has almost become the publicly recognized 'cognitive trend' across the internet.
I personally started shorting comprehensively from late October at $BTC 116000, when the market was still at the bull-bear boundary, and many people were firmly believing that the bull market had not ended, resulting in significant market divergence. That was the first battle between the first batch of short sellers and the strong bulls.
$BTC It's hard to find the short pressure point, so check the counterfeit index #OTHERS . If the upper limit of the range can't break through, then go short.
—— For reference.
—— For reference.
Paper hands. Yesterday in the small group, I sent too much $BTC , watching 70500—71000, but ended up getting shaken out around 69000.
I won't operate in the middle zone anymore, waiting for an opportunity to short on the right side.
I won't operate in the middle zone anymore, waiting for an opportunity to short on the right side.
$BTC empty order, cleared out. It seems like it can still drop, but according to the plan, I won't take the bait anymore.
—— For reference.
—— For reference.
$BTC continues to hold.
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