Before bottom-fishing BTC, I will prioritize buying "MSTR" stocks.
Aside from doing a few spot trades, the stocks related to the crypto circle,
were all sold out by the end of October.
Due to the bearish comments over the past few months, it has made holders feel quite uncomfortable.
First, I want to apologize, but starting next season I will return to being bullish.
But it is important to note that:
"Buying MSTR stock does not mean Bitcoin has reached a low point"
but observed that in early February when Bitcoin plummeted,
MSTR spiked to around 100,
after that Bitcoin rebounded by 20%, but MSTR rebounded by around 40%.
Recently, Bitcoin has weakened, and MSTR has consistently maintained around the 13X price level.
When institutions are bearish on stocks, they often sell when liquidity is at its best.
So the current price may not react immediately.
By the time retail investors react, it will be too late.
Referencing the fund under Peter Thiel's name,
In Q4, clearing U.S. stocks, the liquidity was at its best when retail investors were celebrating due to interest rate cuts.
At that time, many people laughed at him for being a 'retail investor'.
Now looking at the price, only then do we know that the decision he made at that time was indeed the most correct one.
That is to say,
Stocks often have a 'lagging effect', conversely.
When institutions are bullish on stocks, they often accumulate when no one wants them.
By the time retail investors realize the bull return, it will already be too late.
So how should we know,
Is it now MSTR's bottom, and when will Bitcoin's low point arrive?
Because MSTR started to lay out Bitcoin only after 2020.
Therefore, data from 20 years ago is not referenced.
Only referencing the last bull top and bear bottom,
MSTR bull top: 2021/2/8
Bear bottom: 2022/12/27
Bitcoin bull top: 2021/11/8
Bear bottom: 2022/11/14
And this round of bull top and bear bottom:
MSTR bull top: 2025/7/7
Bear bottom: ?
Bitcoin bull top: 2025/10/6
Bear bottom: ?
We can observe that MSTR reaches the top first, then Bitcoin will reach the top.
Institutions must seize the high position and cash out in batches when liquidity is good.
The time difference between both bull tops is several months.
But the time for both sides' bear bottoms is very close.
Moreover, two months after the bear bottom, Bitcoin rebounded back to twenty thousand.
MicroStrategy, after the bear bottom for two months, directly "doubled".
That is to say,
Both sides suffered a heavy blow afterwards.
Both will consolidate for two months, providing enough time for investors to buy the dip.
Moreover, there was no rebound at all during these two months.
The market sentiment at that time was also in a state of despair.
Of course, there are many indicators to judge the bear bottom.
But now, from this judgment perspective,
Bitcoin spiked to 60,000 and "quickly" rebounded to over 70,000.
MSTR spiked to 100 and "quickly" rebounded to 140.
I believe we are still far from the bear bottom, both sides' rebounds are very strong.
But I have observed from here that,
The buying pressure after MSTR's spike is much stronger than BTC. I would consider it to have institutions secretly accumulating.
Looking back at May to June 2022, after Bitcoin fell from 30,000,
MSTR has been stuck around 16 dollars.
But MSTR's bear bottom is just over 14 dollars.
Consolidated between 14 and 16 dollars for about half a year.
And during this half year, Bitcoin fluctuated greatly. When Bitcoin collapsed to 16,000,
The price of MSTR has hardly changed, just a little over a dollar difference.
Looking at the strong rebound of MSTR and BTC from July to August 2022,
Comparing to the rebound after the avalanche in early February this year, it can't be said to be exactly the same.
But I can only say at least 87% like... can't be more.
In summary, it can be said that,
I believe the bottom for MSTR is quite close now.
The next spike after breaking below 100 is not far from the bottom.
If we observe again later:
1. After the Bitcoin avalanche, MSTR's price didn't change much.
2. Bitcoin and MSTR spiked and then consolidated for a long time.
3. The price near MSTR's bottom has been horizontal for several months ahead of BTC.
That position has a high probability of being