北幣逗狗

After gradually liquidating Bitcoin before the end of October, I started planning future directions these days.
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Last month, I also had my family liquidate both Taiwan and U.S. stocks.
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Although my family is not interested in investing in Bitcoin, they will at least fully follow the stock actions.
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For the cryptocurrency market, the bear market is often the real stage for accumulating wealth.
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The bull market can actually lead to losses, like last month when I took a hit due to a black swan event.
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From now on, I will maintain a rhythm of withdrawals every day, and by the end of the year, I might buy some Japanese yen.
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Leaving a small position to continuously stay in the crypto space looking for opportunities.
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Many people have a blind spot, thinking that the bear market means no money can be made,
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but in the crypto space, it’s actually the best time for airdrops and engaging with projects.
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I also gained more confidence in Solana because I participated in Jupiter in 2022 and 2023,
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which is why I dared to increase my positions at that time.
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During the process of participation, you will gradually become more sensitive,
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as long as the projects after the bear market are still alive, you will know which coins can be stashed for the future.
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If you don't have that much time to keep up with the rhythm of the crypto market, the most brainless approach is:
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1. Take advantage of this year to make good money, and don't act just yet.
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2. Wait for a major bottom next year to go all in on Bitcoin.
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3. Set aside some living expenses each month, and continue to DCA Bitcoin with the rest.
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The process in between can be quite boring; if you want to feel involved,
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then when the news starts reporting about a surge, reduce your holdings a bit,
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and when the news starts reporting about a crash, buy a little back.
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Finally, at the end of the 2029 cycle, cash out completely.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Why does Bitcoin's cycle remain so predictable, yet the whales aren't afraid of retail investors bottom-fishing?

Since the crypto market entered a bear phase six months ago,

many folks confidently claimed that since a bear market was on the horizon,

this year would be a good time to chill, make some cash, and wait to scoop up the bottoms together.

Now, six months have passed,

and even those who managed to exit at the peaks,

eventually make some strange choices at times,

slowly eroding their capital throughout the year, even starting to FOMO,

dissing Bitcoin and claiming the crypto space is nearing its end,

saying they should have just jumped into stocks, and so on.

Ultimately, they went from buying crypto to buying stocks, diving in headfirst with everything they had.

Those who joined the party midway often chase the pumps,

most don't buy into the market cap, but instead rush off to research "hot tips,"

or crank up their leverage, trying to catch up with the brainless dollar-cost averaging crowd in spot trading.

When Bitcoin finally hits the bottom,

their capital is probably down to less than half, yet they can't bear to cut losses on their penny stocks.

This is the historical pattern that repeats in every cycle,

when it really hits the bottom,

the whales aren't worried about retail buying, because even those who manage to hold their capital and dare to bottom-fish are just the rare few left.

Doing nothing with empty hands is often the hardest, because the world's temptations are just too abundant.

This isn't aimed at anyone in particular; I just recently added more gold myself, not exactly a hands-off type either,

just recording feelings based on the overall market phenomena I see,

keeping a joyful mindset while traveling,

waiting for Bitcoin's bottom to arrive.
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Gold has been waiting for days and finally dipped below 4600, gearing up for the FOMC meeting announcement.

In my previous posts, I mentioned that after the gold rebound to 4880,

my recent strategies have been swing trading.

Compared to the stock market, the overall pace in precious metals has slowed down,

especially with gold stuck around 4700 for nearly two weeks, many people have lost their patience.

But I believe there will still be opportunities to scoop up more before and after the meeting.

Finally got in below 4600, and I've re-entered with 50% of my position.

Next, I'm also looking to grab silver at 70.

During this month of explosive growth in the stock market, I still want to stick to my plan of being conservatively hands-off in tech stocks this year.

Aside from Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's plans for the second half of the year,

I'm still focused on trading gold and silver.

Especially when the market's attention has shifted away from metals,

I think the value proposition at this level is quite high,

Tonight's FOMC meeting has a high chance of no rate cuts, especially with oil rebounding,

I expect the Fed will also deliver hawkish statements tonight,

and after the drop, I'll continue to pick up cheap entries. $PAXG $XAU $XAG

Gold hit 4880 and then slammed the brakes, let me share some recent thoughts.

It’s been several days since I last dropped an investment article,

and now there are two pieces of news:

1. Yesterday, the World Gold Council announced a net outflow of $12 billion from ETFs in March.

2. Central banks around the world are still stacking gold,

with Poland, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan being the top three buyers.

I mentioned last month that the gold crash shouldn’t be a major concern,

once oil drops, gold will bounce back,

and as the war drags on,

I believe the impact of oil will diminish, and I remain bullish on gold.

At the beginning of the month, I started adjusting my strategy, deciding to swing trade gold.

When gold was at 4400, I filled my remaining position,

and with a bit of leverage, I brought my average price down to around 4650,

planning to exit at 4800, then buy back at 4700, and sell again at 4800.

Now, I’m waiting to buy back around 4600.

Recently, big money has been waiting on gold,

even though there have been plenty of swing opportunities in the stock market,

I think we’re close to the gold play,

with the main players being the central banks, which are continuously stocking up,

the gold ETF consists of retail + some institutions,

my take is that the big players are bullish but retail is panic selling,

so I’m not worried about last month’s net outflow data,

I continue to be optimistic about gold's performance. $XAU $PAXG $XAG

Just returned from vacation in the United States, while waiting in line at San Shang Qiao Fu, my friend noticed that I suddenly exploded with a wave of gold coins.

A few years ago, I was still focused on lurking in the primary market of the coin circle,

it was just a few old folks researching and playing together.

At that time, I built a project with Zhan Zhan @jhaninvest

ASTEROID Shiba,

this project has a touching story behind it.

In the past, for the sake of friendship, I would buy one or two thousand U and leave it untouched,

I had long accepted the mindset of returning to zero as if buying a lottery ticket,

After two years, this project suddenly got a reply from Elon Musk under a tweet,

and just like that, this coin dropped to the bottom -99.99%,

and now it has suddenly risen several thousand times, with a market cap of 200 million USD and listed on major exchanges...

I just returned from the United States, and I haven't paid attention to the coin circle lately,

just like that, unintentionally, I hit the jackpot with meme coins again?

I still have a lot of questions on my face.

Thinking about it, I really have a fate with meme coins,

the first time I hit the jackpot was because Elon Musk called out for the baby dog,

subsequently, during the bear market of 2023, Pepe and Turbo were released,

I have always been accustomed to ignoring them, and in 2024, both coins suddenly came back to life and were listed on Binance...

Every time it's during a bear market that I explode with a wave of meme coins,

the coin circle is really a place full of inexplicable miracles.

The oil market crashes, while gold, stocks, and Bitcoin rebound significantly!

The manipulators are very bad; oil plummeted directly within a few hours.

Inflation pressure has decreased, and Bitcoin has rebounded to the 72k range to sell off.

I’m watching the game abroad and don’t have much time to post; I’ve taken a moment to update today.

The day before yesterday, I bought the Bitcoin spot again at 69500,

and sold off at 72k; this is the sixth wave.

Overall, I believe that although it is still a bear market,

I observed that the funding rate has turned negative, while the market is heavily betting on a surge in oil prices.

Whether it’s gold, stocks, or Bitcoin,

the market has accumulated a lot of short positions; I also believed there would be a chance for a rebound when I updated the day before yesterday.

Gold indeed didn’t let me down; I will discuss it in detail in the next article.

Currently, it is expected to rebound until the FOMC meeting,

until the Fed makes a statement, then the next wave of decline will begin.

The market order will eliminate the oil bulls and the gold bears,

and then next month it will reverse, repeating back and forth.

The manipulators are very bad; in such a market, being a wave trader is the safest. $BTC $XAU $XAG

The recent investment market has been really strange; bad data has come out but there is a rebound.

The latest employment data is very good, combined with the current high inflation and high oil prices,

there's even less reason for the Fed to lower interest rates.

Logically, it should plummet,

but gold, stocks, and Bitcoin have all rebounded significantly.

After thinking about it myself, besides the general disbelief in the data,

the biggest reason is still the 'private credit' time bomb.

If interest rates rise now,

private credit will explode directly, leading to a chain reaction,

and the 2008 financial tsunami will restart.

So now the Federal Reserve is caught between the explosion of private credit and inflation, a brutal choice of two.

Rather than sacrificing the fight against inflation, the Fed is more likely to choose to save the precarious credit crisis.

Moreover, Trump still has the midterm elections to consider,

I believe they won't let the market collapse too dramatically.

So even if oil prices remain high in the coming months,

at most, it will just mean no interest rate cuts.

But not raising or lowering rates is just a slow suicide; the issues that need to be addressed still have to be dealt with.

Personally, I still lean towards thinking this is just a 'rebound',

and when the rebound ends and gold approaches 5000, I will liquidate everything.
$BTC $XAU $PAXG

I went to the United States to watch the NBA, but it turned into watching golden diving.

I watched a game, and by the end, the profit from the golden bottoming was reduced by half.

The take-profit was set at 4800, but the maximum was just 4794, missing it by 6 points.

The internet inside the venue was extremely poor, making it impossible to close the position in real-time.

The referee was unfair... I was watching basketball, not diving.
$XAU $PAXG $XAG

Gold continues to rebound violently, how will my strategy adjust next?

A few days ago, gold plummeted to 4100,

and the market atmosphere was so pessimistic that many were shouting 3000.

At that time, I thought there was no need to panic excessively; I still believed there would be a significant rebound.

The first reason is that the last FOMC meeting indicated a delay in interest rate cuts,

I believe the price has already been hammered down.

The second reason is that inflation must be controlled,

the United States at this stage cannot bear any pressure from interest rate hikes, so oil prices must be controlled.

If the market still has confidence in interest rate cuts, the probability of gold rebounding is very high.

However, with such large fluctuations this year, my strategy should change.

This period of trading back and forth will be more cost-effective than holding.

Originally, my holdings were all in spot, accounting for about 55%,

when it rebounds back to 4400, I continuously increased my holdings to 85%,

and I also opened some leverage on part of the positions.

Now it's just over 4700, slightly profitable, and it is not suitable to chase high now.

Moreover, I will completely liquidate when it gets close to 5000.

I will wait to re-enter after a subsequent pullback,

it seems that regardless of the asset, this year should be treated as

"Trump Market."

Following Trump's back and forth trading, taking profits when they are there yields the highest win rate.

Especially this period, stockholders in memory chips must feel it even more.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

I took a look at the judgments about gold across the internet, and it seems I'm the only one still watching the rebound.

"Stop it, Abei, there are only precious metal bears outside."

I'm trembling with my positions in gold and silver.

Thinking about my main line this year:

"Bearish on Bitcoin, expecting to bottom out in Q3~Q4."

"Bullish on gold and bearish on US stocks, continuing for a whole year."

Looking back at the end of February when it bounced up to 5500, I ended up missing the opportunity to cash out because of greed.

Now that it has fallen, thinking calmly, I still believe the chance of a rebound is very high.

I bet that after Trump's TACO, the market will rebound again, reopening a humanitarian corridor.

If the price is around 5000, I will sell everything.

Recently, my mindset will shift to being a swing trader,

If I still want to participate in the market in the later stages of a bull market, playing and running is still a relatively good strategy.

At that time, after running away, I will consider buying Bitcoin again based on the situation.
$BTC $PAXG $XAU

The US stock market has taken another big dip, and technology stocks have finally experienced a significant correction.

This year has been somewhat unusual,

From a broad market perspective, one might feel indifferent about the US stock market, as the SP500 has remained above 6500.

In fact, two months ago, small and mid-cap stocks began to collapse,

The seven major players in the US stock market have been tugging back and forth,

Along with the narrative around memory chips, some US stocks have managed to survive for a long time.

Micron surged to 470 before its earnings report,

The earnings report turned out to be super strong, but now it has dropped to 360.

As mentioned before, big players tend to sell off at the best moments of retail investor sentiment,

Utilizing favorable news to offload stocks.

Releasing good news at high levels is intended to create liquidity,

If retail investors do not step in, the big players will continue to push the market up while painting a rosy picture.

So recently, although there has been attention on memory chips,

I have been observing without entering the market at the bottom, as I believe the risks are very high, and it is neither the time to chase nor to short.

I have avoided technology stocks,

Overall, the US stock market remains bearish, and Bitcoin has not yet corrected adequately.

However, I will plan my investments in stocks related to the crypto sector around Q2.

First targeting MSTR, then considering allocating CRCL, as I think the timing is approaching.

Time flies so quickly; the bear market has already lasted for half a year!

But it's important to note that buying the dip on MSTR does not mean I believe Bitcoin has reached its bottom.

The timing for both is different, and I will mention it in the next article.
$BTC $ETH $MSTR

To become stronger in investing, cross-domain investment is inevitable.

Previously, I saw other cryptocurrency KOLs sharing about stocks, discussing memory,

and there were definitely strange comments below,

which essentially indicated that people in the cryptocurrency space should stay away and go back to playing Bitcoin, similar comments.

When I started recording gold in January, I also received similar comments.

For myself,

I actually believe that specializing in only one field is not enough,

although I am more skilled in Bitcoin compared to others, after all, I look at it every day and have been doing so for six years.

I tend to be more decisive in entering and exiting positions and am more daring.

But if I want to become a better person,

I must take this time to learn more about other fields,

and I must truly invest to try it out; when I encounter similar problems in the future, I will gain new insights and ideas.

Over the past few months, I have been like a sponge, continuously absorbing new knowledge,

each industry, each field, has its own champions.

The more I see, the more I feel that I have seen too little.

This year, when all investment sectors have been like a roller coaster, going back and forth,

only by actively participating in the market can I become stronger.

Especially when leading a group of people, I must think deeply about every decision I make.

I believe the cryptocurrency space will become more compliant in the future,

and after the narrative of altcoins creating wealth declines,

I speculate that most investors, aside from buying Bitcoin,

will likely reduce their allocation in altcoins and shift towards traditional finance.

So I have to learn sooner or later!

The more I learn, the better I can connect macro ideas.
$XAU $BTC $XAG

After the big drop in gold, I will write about my upcoming allocation plan and review records.

Looking back to mid-January when I first bought gold at 4600, and by the end of February when the war broke out,

there were a total of two opportunities to escape (5500),

but after much consideration, I chose to hold on and gradually allocate downwards.

The biggest reason is,

I underestimated the retracement ability of gold at the peaks of various risky assets,

this wave fell so quickly, dropping over 15% in just two days.

I mentioned before that my main focus this year is to bottom fish Bitcoin,

expecting to go all in around Q3~Q4,

now preparing to move into Q2 next week,

the time to bottom fish is getting closer, but overall gold is stuck about 15%.

Because this wave of oil has remained at high levels for too long, inflation cannot be suppressed,

I expect gold to reach my target (above 6000), but it is estimated to be difficult to achieve in the short term.

However, I still believe it can at least rebound to 5000,

my ideal plan now is to prepare to gradually sell gold after a rebound in a few months,

in the long term, the positive narrative for gold remains unchanged,

I previously mentioned that for "de-dollarization," the ultimate means for various countries is still to continue hoarding gold.

I still have confidence in the future development.

However, this wave of inflation has hit the Asian region the hardest,

the oil issue has once again raised inflation, most notably seen in the significant retracement of Japanese and Korean stocks.

In a year when assets are all at high levels,

the difficulty of investment has greatly increased, but I still won’t change my original judgment.

DYOR！
$PAXG $XAG $XAU

Will gold replicate past trends? Is a major crash about to begin?

This image has been circulating online,

Both instances were triggered by the post-Iran war gold sell-off,

and the force of the pullback is extremely terrifying, and the chart almost follows the same path.

But the background in 1980 was:

1. The U.S. raised interest rates to 20%.

2. The world had a huge demand for oil, and there were no better alternative energy sources at that time.

3. Dollar hegemony.

Replicating this trend is very difficult. I believe that in the coming months, the Fed will at most maintain the current interest rates without lowering them,

First, the pressure from national debt caused by raising interest rates will be unbearable for the U.S.

Second, technological development will gradually absorb the impact on oil. With each crisis, the shock becomes smaller.

Third, China and other countries opposing the U.S. now eagerly wish to de-dollarize, and the dollar is no longer as strong as it once was.

In this context,

replicating such an exaggerated pullback from the past is very challenging.

Recently, it has just been an extension of interest rate cut expectations, with oil and natural gas prices rising, and everyone is just overly panicking about assets.

It's far from the background of the major crash in the 1980s.
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Bitcoin successfully fell after reaching 76k, and spot profits were realized.

Compared to gold, I am more skilled in the cryptocurrency field.

I observed that after the PCE data was released a few days ago,

U.S. stocks and gold fell, but Bitcoin remained stable at 69k, showing a decoupling phenomenon where Bitcoin did not drop.

In the previous article, it was mentioned that the market would continue to rise before the FOMC meeting,

but it would only rise to around 78K at most,

and finally, Bitcoin reached 76k before starting to fall smoothly again.

During the FOMC meeting, I sold my spot around 72k, which was the fifth wave in recent months.

Although I still believe that Bitcoin hasn't reached its bottom yet,

I have started to observe that Bitcoin, compared to U.S. stocks and gold,

has not dropped much due to the negative news in recent weeks.

At this time, I also observed MSTR, which is still high from its last low of 100 and hasn't dropped much.

I believe that after a while,

the focus will start to return to Bitcoin.

In the short term, I probably won't swing trade again, but instead will start to slowly shift from a bearish mindset to a bullish one.

I expect that after one last big drop, I will start to gradually allocate positions.

Originally, I expected to start bottom fishing around 38-45k,

but if the next big drop occurs and falls below 60k, I will start to establish a 10% initial position.

Continue to keep an eye on it. $BTC $XAU $XAG

Gold plummeted after the FOMC meeting; will it continue to fall?

The Iran war is lasting longer than expected,

With oil and gas infrastructure being bombed, inflation seems unlikely to be contained in the short term.

Powell's stance is also very clear; he believes that interest rate cuts are impossible in the short term,

European countries are also facing the problem of rising interest rates due to the increase in oil and gas prices.

Speaking of long-term direction, I still believe that gold will rise, but it is currently suppressed by this war.

The depreciation of fiat currency is already an irreversible fact in the long term,

In recent months, the biggest buyers behind the market surge have been central banks,

However, the buying pressure this year has been much smaller, and every time there is a decline, it flows smoothly.

My average position price is around 5000, and I will wait for a few weeks for a rebound,

Reallocate my positions and reduce the proportion of gold.

Although it still has significant allocation value in the long run,

Considering the delayed expectations for interest rate cuts, plus my main focus this year is on bottom-fishing Bitcoin,

I believe the timing is approaching, and I will share detailed rebound positions in the next article.
$PAXG $XAU $XAG

Bitcoin has rebounded to 74k again, how will I look at it next?

A few days after the PCE data was released,

although the data looks good, I observed that the US stock market and gold both weakened at the same time,

but Bitcoin did not fall,

and for most of the time, the US dollar index has a negative correlation with Bitcoin,

this time the US dollar index is rising, but Bitcoin is not following the decline,

at this point, I believe there is a high probability that it will be another rebound, but after a general upward trend, it will still go down.

At this time, I shared in the group that I re-entered the spot market, with the entry position at 69k.

But after the rise, I must run away again; after the rebound, I still need to sell.

This rebound's limit is expected to be around 78k,

the estimated time is after the 3/17 FOMC meeting, in these few days there will definitely be fluctuations,

and since the US-Iran war, too many people have shorted Bitcoin, the open interest is rebounding in the short term, and the funding rate has been negative for a while, I believe that short positions are piling up.

The market goes against human nature,

before the FOMC, the US stock market and precious metals market are reducing leverage,

but Bitcoin is flying high against the wind again.

After this wave of rise, I estimate that the market makers will again lure many people from the crypto space to enter,

the market makers create a false impression of a bull return,

after tricking everyone onto the bus, there will be another wave of new declines.

The overall trend is still bearish,

and I believe it is not yet the right time to accumulate large positions for bottom-fishing.
$ETH $PAXG $XAU

In early March, there was significant volatility, and we can see funds slowly flowing out of technology stocks.

The market is starting to head towards 'uncertainty'.

This month, after the CPI announcement, although inflation remains unchanged,

the market rebound still seems very limited.

The highlight of this month should be the FOMC meeting on the 17th,

Polymarket currently expects the meeting on 3/17 to be:

'99% no rate cut'

The accuracy of market predictions is still very valuable for reference,

If the Fed does not cut interest rates, then the volatility of technology stocks this month will be greater.

From January speculating on memory and gold and silver, to March speculating on oil,

there is a trend of large capital flowing towards commodities.

Think about it, after being bearish on Bitcoin since the end of October,

most people only truly realized it was a bear market in early February.

The capital rotation in the stock market will be a bit slower than in the crypto circle,

perhaps in a month or two, the market will provide the best answer.
$BTC $XAU $XAG

Why did gold not increase in price this time due to the Iran war?

In the past, everyone bought gold because of 'safe-haven demand',

but this time, there was not only no safe haven,

from the day the war broke out, it immediately jumped from 5100 to 5600, then fell back to 5100.

The impact of this wave of war on gold is actually not as significant as many imagined.

In the past, retail investors bought gold mainly due to wars,

such as the potential cross-strait conflict, which is also a reason many retail investors started hoarding gold.

However, from the magnitude of this rise and fall, it can be seen that it is definitely not something ordinary retail investors can control.

The reason lies in the recent surge in gold prices,

which is directly related to central banks and institutions buying gold.

But they are not buying gold for war safe haven,

but rather to hedge against the US dollar.

For large funds, the best response to 'inflation' + 'currency depreciation' is still gold in mainstream thinking.

The reason for hoarding gold is actually bearish on fiat currency,

and the weight of the war's impact on gold is not high,

this is also why after the recent surge in oil prices, if future inflation rises,

the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates will decline,

leading to a simultaneous drop in all asset prices.

Gold still held above 5100 this time,

but because of this wave of oil, the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan seem much weaker.
$BTC $XAU $XAG