A new week has begun. Yesterday, the roller coaster ride resulted in a double kill for both bulls and bears, but the support from the larger cycle remains strong and is difficult to change in a short time. Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, risks are accumulating. The sharp drop yesterday was led by Bitcoin, which lost over a thousand points in an instant (30 minutes). The risk of chasing highs in the short term is quite large. Today's volatility is likely to be on par with or even greater than yesterday's. The strategy for now is to expect significant fluctuations, avoid chasing rises, and refrain from panic selling. Patiently wait for a sharp decline to find support for buying, keeping a large position with small losses, and similarly applying a strategy of large short positions with small losses at high resistance levels.
Bitcoin: Focus mainly on short positions, with some long positions as a supplement. From the 4-hour chart, multiple technical signals have raised warnings. The upper Bollinger band has formed resistance, and the price has surged and then retreated; the MACD indicator has shown a death cross and is diverging downwards, reflecting a decline in buying momentum; at the same time, there is a phenomenon of divergence between volume and price in the market, meaning that when prices surge, volume increases, and during pullbacks, volume decreases, which is usually a signal of weakening market momentum. However, as long as it does not break 120,000, the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged.
Support: 122300, Resistance: 125500, 126500
Ethereum: Focus mainly on short positions, with some long positions as a supplement. A large whale address has completed a significant amount of ETH profit-taking near the average price of $4,458. Such large profit-taking actions sometimes indicate that a short-term top may form, and the MACD histogram is shortening, indicating a decline in bullish strength. $4,550 is a key technical resistance level to watch closely.
