📈 Oil is Climbing — But the Chart Still Looks Fragile

WTI Crude is trading around $61.8 (+1.83%), showing a short-term rebound — but technically, it’s still fighting resistance.

🔷 Key Technical View (4H Chart)

🔸 Price rebounded above 0.786 Fib ($61.69) after defending the local bottom at $60.40.

🔸 Both SMA50 and SMA200 are still above the price — meaning the structure remains bearish, even with a short-term bounce.

🔸 RSI sits near 48.7, neutral momentum — no clear overbought signal yet.

Local downtrend line still intact (watch for breakout above $62.7 - $63.3 to confirm reversal).

📊 Macro Angle

Oil rising = less pressure for the Fed to cut rates.

If WTI stays above $62, it can strengthen inflation expectations → bad news for early easing.

If the price turns lower again, the narrative flips — weaker demand = more rate cut probability.

⚙️ Key levels to watch

🔸 Resistance: $62.7 / $63.3

🔸 Support: $61.7 / $60.4

🧭 Market still in “wait mode” — until NFP and next week’s Fed comments confirm direction.

#MarketUptober #WTI #Macro #commodities #NFPWatch