🗓 What events to expect this week

Mon, March 30

• 17:30 Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

Tue, March 31

• 17:00 Number of job openings in the labor market JOLTS (for February)

• 17:00 Consumer Confidence Index (CB Consumer Confidence)

Wed, April 1

• 15:15 Change in number of employed in the private sector from ADP

• 16:45 Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI)

• 17:00 The Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM) in the manufacturing sector

Thu, April 2

• 15:30 Number of initial unemployment claims

Fri, April 3

• USA - Good Friday - public holiday

• 15:30 Change in the number of employed in the non-farm sector (Non-Farm Payrolls)

• 15:30 Unemployment Rate

• 16:45 The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the services sector

*Time in Kyiv = Moscow

☝️ The main risk of the week — Friday. April 3 is a public holiday in many countries (USA, Europe) — Good Friday. Exchanges are closed, but the unemployment report (NFP) will still be released. Due to low liquidity, any deviations in the numbers can lead to sharp market movements.

🔖 Explanation of news (can be expanded):

▪️The number of job openings in the JOLTS labor market — the number of open vacancies in the USA. If there are many vacancies, the labor market is strong, the economy is growing, the dollar may strengthen, and crypto may fall, as investors choose stable assets.

▪️The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector — Above 50 — growth, below 50 — decline. The crypto market currently likes bad news (PMI below 50), as it prompts the Fed to ease policy more quickly.

▪️Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment (Fri) — the main triggers.

• Forecast: The market expects modest job growth (~48–60k) and an unemployment rate of 4.5%.

• For crypto: If the data turns out to be much worse than expected (high unemployment), it could trigger panic due to fears of recession, or a powerful surge on expectations of stimulus.

▪️The Consumer Confidence Index — if Americans are pessimistic, they invest less in risky assets. A rising index usually supports the dollar and puts pressure on crypto.