Hello everyone, long time no see. This morning at six o'clock, Bitcoin was kicked down below 65000 points, and then quickly rebounded. After a whole day of tugging, the price returned to around 68000 points, with no significant change in trading volume, and market sentiment did not show obvious excitement. It's more like holding one's breath underwater, slowly surfacing for air; the calls for a bull market remain scattered.
If we look purely from the technical aspect of K-line, this rebound clearly exceeded the expected high point of the indicators. Fortunately, everyone understands that the pricing power in the market is no longer in the cryptocurrency space; Trump's words are more effective than any indicators.
On the macro front, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, with oil prices maintaining high levels. What was once thought to be a 'short-term event' is gradually turning into a 'long-term variable.' I believe that if the conflict continues and is no longer eased by individual will, the sustained high energy prices will no longer be just fluctuations but will become a trend for a long time. The rise in energy prices does not simply lead to an increase in costs but also revives inflation expectations. Once inflation returns, the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace will be compressed or even delayed, or the rhetoric for rate hikes may emerge.
The risk market is switching from 'rate cuts and liquidity' to 'stagflation expectations,' which is why we see gold strengthening continuously, but risk assets overall are under pressure, with Bitcoin caught in the middle, sometimes acting as a safe haven and other times being sold off as a risk asset in a contradictory trend.
The price of Bitcoin rebounded from 65000 to 68000 after today's spike. It's not that the bulls suddenly became aggressive, but rather a structural balance. The bears at this stage are no longer daring to sell hard, as there are buyers below. After the price was pulled up, the trading volume shrank, leading to resistance in further upward movement, also because the bulls are hesitant to chase due to macroeconomic bearish sentiment.
In the nearing end of March, the Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about 2.6 billion dollars this month, while the Ethereum spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about 270 million dollars. Bitcoin has repeatedly shown a single-day net inflow exceeding 200 million dollars, and the continuous net inflows have been witnessed by all. This indicates that traditional capital is willing to spend money to buy future expectations when Bitcoin is relatively cheap, and other assets, including Ethereum, do not have this market position.
The irrational volatility of the market directly leads to difficulties in our execution logic at the trading level. Without a relatively stable trend, every strategy in the futures market could lead to passive liquidation, while the spot market is also close to being trapped as soon as you buy, followed by cutting losses and leaving during the final oscillation and adjustment downtrend. Therefore, when discussing whether there exists the simplest money-making strategy with the team today, a small assistant suddenly asked: what would happen if we set aside 10U for Bitcoin every day without looking at the market? This sparked infinite thoughts for me!
If you invest 10U every day, that's 3650U in a year. If you buy in at a steady pace within this year, assuming the average cost is between 60000 and 70000 points, you could accumulate about 0.06 Bitcoin over the year. If the price returns to the high of 100,000, the value of this position would be 6080 USD, yielding an approximate return of 66.6%.
Let's calculate again. If this process is extended to two years, the corresponding annualized return is about 28%; what about three years? The annualized return is about 18%. This logic of operation does not require you to time the market, judge high and low points, or participate in emotional fluctuations; it only depends on one thing—whether we are continuously present.
At this stage, the hardest part is not finding opportunities, but surviving until opportunities arise. If you're going long, you have to fight against macro uncertainties; if you're going short, you have to face ETF support; if you're chasing trends, you have to bear the risk of liquidity being withdrawn at any moment. All operations that rely on 'judging the present' are becoming more difficult. Moreover, we have no idea when Trump might preemptively build a 'mouse warehouse' and then launch a wave of highly impactful 'calls'.
This round of the market is no longer a simple bull market nor a traditional bear market, but a structurally influenced market by macro factors. Many will remember today’s spike at 65000, but in just a couple of days, these details will be forgotten because the vast majority of people do not own Bitcoin. In every segment of a trash market, we only realize the importance of holding half of the core mainstream later.
In the current market, we temporarily do not see liquidity feedback from bears returning to bulls in the structural market. Each rebound's high point is the best position for us to offload bottom chips. A new high in the long cycle market requires at least a quarter of patience, waiting for the Nasdaq monthly line collapse and for Bitcoin's daily line to experience another drop of more than ten percent. Waiting has become our confession to the crypto market!
Back to the market:
Bitcoin: After the intraday spike and pullback, it tested the 68000 point high where the bulls showed weakness and resistance, and a second test was conducted in the evening. The current rebound on the short-term level of 15 minutes has tentatively set a high point just above 68000. In the short term, attention is needed on whether it will retrace again to the hourly line level. If the low breaks below 65000, it means the four-hour decline continues, and the 60000 round number will not hold. But if the hourly line stops above 65000, it means the four-hour decline in Bitcoin has ended, and we will wait for the daily line level to recover. From a technical perspective and the current distribution of liquidity, the probability of making new lows in the decline remains high.
You can recall what I said ten days ago when Bitcoin surged; I mentioned the possibility of Bitcoin breaking 76000 points was almost nonexistent. The high point just spiked at 76000, then it fell all the way below 65000, with a drop of 11000 points. The batch short positions in the node group captured an interval of up to 7000 points.
Ethereum: Overall, it moves in conjunction with Bitcoin, with Ethereum being slightly stronger in the short term, but it doesn't help much.
The fear and greed index is at 28 today.#BTC行情