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Coming to the crypto world is about making money, getting rich overnight is the best! However, steady and consistent progress is the sustainable survival rule.
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Why did it drop so quickly after the interest rate cut?
Core macro events: Interest rate cut implemented but differences have intensified, expectations for easing have cooled The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, but significant differences emerged within the monetary policy decision-making body, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, setting a record for the highest number of dissenting votes in six years, directly indicating the complexity of the current policy choices Hawkish opposition logic: Some officials believe that inflationary pressures remain sticky, and an early rate cut could undermine previous anti-inflation achievements, with concerns that easing policies could trigger a rebound in inflation Dovish opposition logic: Another group of officials advocates for a more substantial rate cut to preemptively hedge against potential economic downturn risks, avoiding lagging policy adjustments
#美联储降息 The essence of interest rate cuts is long-term benefits and short-term drawbacks. In the short term, profit-taking occurs when positive outcomes are realized. In the long term, after an interest rate cut, there will be an influx of capital.
In this wave, I need to find a position to buy; if it reaches 84000, I will buy some BTC first.
How is it? What third uncle said is not wrong, right? $ETH has kept up with the rhythm and has at least 300 points, what should be the next step? You can privately message third uncle #ETH走势分析
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After this weekend, how will Ethereum move forward?
Core contradictions escalate: 1.73 billion liquidation symmetrical structure, a life-and-death situation dominated by the main players ETH is currently trapped in a liquidation symmetrical game structure within the 3000-3200 range. This is not a natural market fluctuation, but rather a psychological pressure battlefield deliberately constructed by the main players. The bidirectional liquidation chips form a key game node: Break above 3200: This will trigger the concentrated liquidation of 764 million USD in short positions, leading to a trend-driven rise and becoming the core ignition point for the main upward wave. Break below 3000: This will trigger the forced liquidation of 973 million USD in long positions, resulting in a pullback to the 2800 range or even lower, completing the final round of deep washing and chip turnover.
Amidst the sound of recession, we welcome the last interest rate cut of the year
Everyone, I'm back. During the two weeks of no updates, Uncle San has not been idle; in fact, he has been busier than usual. In terms of business development, I have met many new friends in Dubai to learn from their experiences. Soon, we will officially start the MCN plan for the studio, and the major node plan mentioned at the end of the research report will be formally included in the work schedule. Partners who have not received their commission rebates after years in the field can come to us. Over the years, this is an extra income that is no less than ordinary trading. In terms of market dynamics, there has been almost no good trading space in the past half month. Apart from a few counterfeit leaders guiding a short-term market trend, the market has been stagnant. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating without breaking through the upper resistance or falling below the lower support. The market has been waiting, just like us, for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance after the meeting, and also for the final implementation of the yen interest rate hike.
Core pattern of the market, how should Ethereum be approached?
$ETH Currently showing a 4-hour level oscillation and stalemate, price anchored at the core center of 3110 USD, intense competition around key price levels, with clear core characteristics of the market. Key price level system: Central point: 3110 (core of short-term competition between bulls and bears) Resistance level: 3239 (key defense line for medium-term bears, breakthrough needs volume confirmation) Support zone: 3050-3100 (important defensive range for the current market) Moving average structure signal: Short-term moving average: 3054 forms support below, medium-term moving average follows price fluctuations. Long-term moving average: 3239 continues to suppress price upward movement, showing a pattern of short and medium-term moving averages intertwining, with long-term moving averages under pressure, clearly indicating that the medium-term trend is still dominated by bears.
Yesterday was the weekend, I initially wanted to give myself some rest time. In the evening, $ETH there was a back-and-forth pin insertion of 250 points, as if someone was manipulating and cursing us. Earlier in the morning, I opened a short position at 3040 and took profit at 2930, because the expected scenario was a breakdown accelerating downward, opening a downward channel. As a result, I entered a short position again at 2950, and the outcome was being pulled back to 3050 for a stop loss. In such extreme market conditions, hardly anyone can capitalize on two segments. Recently, there has been too much news, both positive and negative are being released. It is still important to operate based on the levels I organized for you earlier, and there must be clear level settings! For those brothers who have not yet entered the market, I still suggest waiting a bit longer, until clear signals are given before entering. Holding cash does not mean giving up; holding onto a position is what leads to loss #ETH走势分析 .
三叔
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After this weekend, how will Ethereum move forward?
Core contradictions escalate: 1.73 billion liquidation symmetrical structure, a life-and-death situation dominated by the main players ETH is currently trapped in a liquidation symmetrical game structure within the 3000-3200 range. This is not a natural market fluctuation, but rather a psychological pressure battlefield deliberately constructed by the main players. The bidirectional liquidation chips form a key game node: Break above 3200: This will trigger the concentrated liquidation of 764 million USD in short positions, leading to a trend-driven rise and becoming the core ignition point for the main upward wave. Break below 3000: This will trigger the forced liquidation of 973 million USD in long positions, resulting in a pullback to the 2800 range or even lower, completing the final round of deep washing and chip turnover.
After this weekend, how will Ethereum move forward?
Core contradictions escalate: 1.73 billion liquidation symmetrical structure, a life-and-death situation dominated by the main players ETH is currently trapped in a liquidation symmetrical game structure within the 3000-3200 range. This is not a natural market fluctuation, but rather a psychological pressure battlefield deliberately constructed by the main players. The bidirectional liquidation chips form a key game node: Break above 3200: This will trigger the concentrated liquidation of 764 million USD in short positions, leading to a trend-driven rise and becoming the core ignition point for the main upward wave. Break below 3000: This will trigger the forced liquidation of 973 million USD in long positions, resulting in a pullback to the 2800 range or even lower, completing the final round of deep washing and chip turnover.
It's time to start paying attention to position management and leverage adjustment!
Upgrade of core macro variables in the market: The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting on December 19, bringing the policy rate up to 0.75%, which will set a new record high since 1995. From the perspective of capital flow logic, the upward movement of the yen interest rate center will inevitably drive the yen exchange rate to strengthen, and this process is usually accompanied by a large-scale concentration of yen arbitrage trading globally — such arbitrage trading relies on borrowing yen at low interest rates and converting it into other currencies to allocate risk assets, which has been one of the key sources of financing liquidity supporting the rebound of crypto assets such as $BTC $ETH . As the financing cost of the yen rises and the arbitrage space narrows, the funds relying on yen leverage in the cryptocurrency market will face substantial tightening pressure, which may trigger passive liquidation of leveraged positions in the short term, thereby amplifying market volatility. High-leverage traders need to pay close attention to this liquidity contraction risk and proactively optimize position structures and stop-loss settings.
$ZEC , Let's chat with everyone again $ZEC , yesterday's stretch may have made some feel that ZEC's pullback has ended, but the greater possibility is to fill the gap of 395. After filling, the scenario of going down to touch 295 is the double kill plot set by the market maker. Everyone must manage their positions diligently and wait for a confirmation signal before opening positions! The confirmation signal can refer to the point mentioned by Uncle San earlier, which is $ZEC . I hope everyone can survive in the market! #zec
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Is this wave of ZEC's crash a normal consolidation?
After finishing the key points yesterday, the market indeed followed Uncle San's prediction again, with a drop breaking the key local support from $400 → $370 → $295. I mentioned this to everyone yesterday; it is a standard and clearly signaled short opportunity: the technical structure has long released a warning of weakening, with early key support levels continuously breached, and coupled with the RSI consistently failing to break through the downward trend line, the weak pattern has been fully confirmed under multiple signal resonances. Looking back at ZEC's current market trend, from 40 to 700, a cumulative increase of up to 1750%. After such an astonishing rise, it entered a correction → consolidation phase, which is essentially a healthy repair of the trend, fully conforming to market operation rules, and there is no need for excessive surprise. However, where it will finally adjust to is still a bottom, and we need to observe market behavior to judge!
Stop being caught in the double kill of bulls and bears, come in and learn!
Uncle San is here to discuss the current market situation and core logic: ETH surged strongly yesterday, accurately reaching the first target of 3220! What will happen next? The current market shows three key features: Liquidity concentration at target levels: The range of 3220-3250 is a densely accumulated liquidity zone from the previous period, with a large number of orders competing, and there is a demand for liquidity absorption, making the probability of a direct breakthrough in the short term low; Profit-taking pressure from bulls is emerging: After this round of surge, bulls have substantial floating profits, facing concentrated profit-taking pressure near 3220, combined with overbought signals (RSI/MACD are both in high regions), short-term correction momentum is accumulating;
When the tide finally washes over the dam, we will eventually come ashore!
After listening to Powell's speech, I blurted out 'Wow', and then fell into self-affirmation. Everyone can take a look at what Uncle San posted earlier, don't lose the blood-soaked cheap chips! This prolonged tug-of-war between bulls and bears has finally been declared over with the Federal Reserve's clear signal of easing, and the real market rebound officially begins at this moment! Nuclear-level signal, directly blasting through the psychological defense line of bears. QT officially ends today, no longer a mild statement of slowing down tapering, but rather a direct injection of $95 billion in liquidity into the market every month. This is equivalent to the Federal Reserve personally opening the liquidity floodgates, reversing the previously tightened monetary environment completely, solving the market's liquidity shortage problem.
Core Event: The Federal Reserve Launches Large-Scale Overnight Repo, Signaling Strong Liquidity Support The overnight repo operation conducted by the Federal Reserve on December 1 reached a scale of 13500000000 USD, marking not only a peak since the pandemic's high point in 2020 but also surpassing levels seen during the Internet bubble of 2000, indicating the Federal Reserve's proactive intervention in the current market liquidity environment and risk hedging. Professional Interpretation: The Essence and Policy Intent of Overnight Repo Core Definition of Operation: Overnight Repurchase Agreement is one of the core tools used by the Federal Reserve to regulate liquidity in the banking system. Essentially, it is a short-term financing mechanism based on high-quality collateral—commercial banks use high-credit assets such as government bonds as collateral to borrow overnight funds from the Federal Reserve, which are then repaid with principal and interest the next day along with the redemption of the collateral.
Is this wave of ZEC's crash a normal consolidation?
After finishing the key points yesterday, the market indeed followed Uncle San's prediction again, with a drop breaking the key local support from $400 → $370 → $295. I mentioned this to everyone yesterday; it is a standard and clearly signaled short opportunity: the technical structure has long released a warning of weakening, with early key support levels continuously breached, and coupled with the RSI consistently failing to break through the downward trend line, the weak pattern has been fully confirmed under multiple signal resonances. Looking back at ZEC's current market trend, from 40 to 700, a cumulative increase of up to 1750%. After such an astonishing rise, it entered a correction → consolidation phase, which is essentially a healthy repair of the trend, fully conforming to market operation rules, and there is no need for excessive surprise. However, where it will finally adjust to is still a bottom, and we need to observe market behavior to judge!
$ZEC After breaking through the key local support, it fell without resistance to the preset target liquidity area (around $450). This sharp decline can be described as a series of support breaks, directly penetrating three key defense lines: 50-day moving average (short-term trend watershed) $480 integer support level 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support line From a technical structure perspective, this is a standard and clean short-selling opportunity: the structure has long released weakening signals, with early support levels continuously breached, and the RSI has never managed to break through the downward trend line, confirming a weak pattern through multiple signals. Last week, we had already warned of core risks: excessive leverage by bulls could become an “accelerator” for the decline— in the current market environment, a 5% fluctuation is enough to trigger a large number of long positions to explode, which is also the core reason why recent corrections have reached 10%-20%. Looking back at this round of ZEC market, it soared from $40 to $700, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1750%. After such an astonishing increase, entering a correction → consolidation phase is completely normal for trend recovery, and there is no need for excessive surprise. Key judgment on the subsequent trend Currently, the core lifeline of ZEC is in the support area around $400: This area must be defended, and the RSI needs to effectively break through the downward trend line to ease the downward pressure; If support is lost, the first target looks directly towards $327; The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this round of rise is at the key level of $297. Once this price level is breached, market selling pressure may further release, and we need to wait for the bulls to accumulate enough momentum to stabilize the structure again. Key price level summary Support levels: $400 → $370 → $295 (strong support / 61.8% Fibonacci level) Resistance levels: $430 (first resistance for short-term rebound) → $480 (previous support turned resistance, key pressure level) #加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹
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I have seen so many people analyzing $ZEC , but none can accurately pinpoint the location. I have been following ZEC since the end of October, and the price points have always been directly released, the highs and lows. You can start looking from the previous content; it has always been analyzed before the market movements. Now, regarding ZEC, do not easily short it, as long as it does not break the support range of 425-486, there is a possibility of a new high appearing!
Everyone is asking this, let’s clarify it simply: 1. The overall content belongs to the old saying in a new way, summarizing certain historical policies and emphasizing key points for future crackdowns; 2. The known document still does not state that trading cryptocurrency is illegal, but emphasizes that domestic virtual currency trading activities are not protected by law; not being protected by law does not equate to being illegal; 3. The focus of the meeting is to emphasize the money laundering risks associated with stablecoins. In fact, since last year, the largest application scenario for stablecoins is no longer the cryptocurrency market, but rather cross-regional settlement of global macro capital, which includes many gray and black industries that cannot be regulated; 4. The reason for choosing to release this meeting document on Saturday is that the policy has considered selecting low liquidity times to minimize impact; 5. Understanding, respecting, and supporting. The cryptocurrency market is not one where everyone can make money; in this market where capital flows rapidly and human greed is amplified to the extreme, telling you not to play is also a form of indirect protection.
Has everyone started to panic with a big spike this morning? Let’s analyze it together. From 3050, there was no rebound and it fell directly to 2830, the core driver is not a change in fundamentals, but rather the breach of key levels → leveraged selling → a chain reaction of institutions cashing out. Key level failure triggers confidence collapse: The 3000 level has served as an effective support multiple times, this breach was unresisted, marking the collapse of the psychological and financial defense line of the bulls, and the forced selling from trapped positions exacerbates the decline; Volume and sentiment confirm weakness: MACD green bars expand, corresponding to panic selling, indicating that the downward momentum has not faded, eliminating the possibility of a short-term V rebound; oscillation repair is a necessary stage;
$ETH has successfully broken through, next we will wait for a pullback before looking at 3163 #ETH走势分析
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$ETH The upward channel is now open, let's see how the volume is released! Pay attention to the two points $BTC 92000 and 88500. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comments! Follow San Shu for the latest trends #ETH走势分析