Has everyone started to panic with a big spike this morning? Let’s analyze it together. From 3050, there was no rebound and it fell directly to 2830, the core driver is not a change in fundamentals, but rather the breach of key levels → leveraged selling → a chain reaction of institutions cashing out.
Key level failure triggers confidence collapse: The 3000 level has served as an effective support multiple times, this breach was unresisted, marking the collapse of the psychological and financial defense line of the bulls, and the forced selling from trapped positions exacerbates the decline;
Volume and sentiment confirm weakness: MACD green bars expand, corresponding to panic selling, indicating that the downward momentum has not faded, eliminating the possibility of a short-term V rebound; oscillation repair is a necessary stage;
Institutional behavior leads the trend: Continuous oscillation followed by concentrated selling triggers a chain of stop losses, further amplifying market panic emotions, forming a vicious cycle of emotional sell-off → liquidity squeeze.
Two necessary conditions for bullish reversal
First confirmation point: Retrace to the 2930-2950 range and stabilize (based on 4-hour/daily closing prices); this is a strong resistance level transformed from previous lows, and stabilization is necessary to filter false rebound signals.
Trend reversal point: Regain the integer level of 3000; if the rebound cannot stabilize at this level, the trend remains bearish, and the rebound is merely an opportunity for bears to replenish positions.
Core conclusion: Not stabilizing above 2950 = weak rebound, only a short-term repair; only regaining 3000 establishes a foundation for reversal; otherwise, all are false reversals.
Three major triggering scenarios for bear continuation
Direct break: Breaking below 2850, look downward to the 2800-2775 range.
Secondary suppression: The rebound is weak and has not broken through 2930-2950; the bears will apply pressure again, targeting 2820-2790.
Trend upgrade: Effectively breaking below 2770 opens a new round of trend decline, and prices may flow to 2720/2680 and lower.
Core conclusion: 2870 is only a decline step, not the bottom; the key to the continuation of bearish dominance is to defend the pressure level of 2930-2950. Breaking below 2850 further consolidates weakness.
Core principle of practical operation: Reject subjective assumptions, anchor to confirmable signals.
Avoid pitfalls: Do not blindly believe that falling a lot must rise, before the trend confirms a reversal, all rebounds are regarded as short-term repairs.
Operational logic: Formulate strategies centered on key levels — if the weak rebound does not exceed 2950, reduce positions at high points; if it stabilizes above 2950, a light long position can be attempted (stop loss below 2930); if it breaks below 2850, follow the trend (stop loss above 2870).
Risk warning: Although the bears have the advantage, the risk of high-level chasing increases, extreme price chasing should be avoided; 2770 is a trend watershed, and once effectively broken, positions need to be adjusted to prevent a new round of downside risk.
