Core macro events: Interest rate cut implemented but differences have intensified, expectations for easing have cooled
The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, but significant differences emerged within the monetary policy decision-making body, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, setting a record for the highest number of dissenting votes in six years, directly indicating the complexity of the current policy choices
Hawkish opposition logic: Some officials believe that inflationary pressures remain sticky, and an early rate cut could undermine previous anti-inflation achievements, with concerns that easing policies could trigger a rebound in inflation
Dovish opposition logic: Another group of officials advocates for a more substantial rate cut to preemptively hedge against potential economic downturn risks, avoiding lagging policy adjustments
Key signal reversal: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated after the meeting that the probability of a rate cut in January is low, directly breaking the market's expectations for sustained easing in the short term. The macro positives accumulated due to rate cut expectations concentrated out, becoming the core trigger for the market's selling sentiment explosion.
Cryptocurrency market reaction: mainstream coins rise and fall
Affected by macro sentiment switching, $BTC and $ETH synchronously experienced severe fluctuations, perfectly fitting the market rule of buying expectations and selling facts:
After the interest rate cut decision was announced in the early morning, short-term funds surged on the positive news, with BTC touching around 94500 and ETH rebounding to 3450
After the good news is realized, selling pressure quickly emerges, and the price begins to fall rapidly:
BTC has once again fallen below the key threshold of 90000, giving back all the gains made on Tuesday night due to rate cut expectations;
ETH dropped below 3200, effectively erasing previous rebound gains;
Nature of volatility: The current market is still driven primarily by macro liquidity expectations. Under the signal of no rate cut in January, investors tend to take profits, and tightening liquidity expectations dominate short-term trends.
Technical analysis: Key resistance suppression + indicator divergence, a technical repair may be welcomed in the short term
The trends of the two major mainstream coins are influenced by both macro sentiment and technical pressure, with obvious adjustment characteristics in the short-term structure:
Daily level: Resistance level suppression is clear, and the medium-term trend is yet to be confirmed
BTC: The price encountered strong resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, failing to form an effective breakthrough, and returned to the previous consolidation range after a rise and fall. The technical aspect shows a pattern of encountering resistance and falling back;
ETH: Subject to the pressure of the MA60 moving average, which has previously been a key resistance for rebound trends. After the macro positives faded, the technical pressure quickly turned into actual declines, failing to stabilize above 3400.
Medium to short-term indicators: Bearish volume is released, initial oversold signals appear
4-hour level: The MACD indicator continues to decline with shrinking volume, and the RSI indicator approaches the oversold range. The continuous release of bearish volume expands the morning's decline, showing clear short-term weakness;
Half-hour level: As the selling pressure in the Asian session is concentrated and released, the RSI has entered the oversold area and is gradually flattening, while the MACD shows signs of slight bottom divergence, indicating that the downward momentum has somewhat slowed. There may be technical rebound repair demand during the European session to digest the short-term excessive selling pressure.
Key price levels and afternoon trading strategies: Focus on support/resistance effectiveness
BTC core price level and response logic
Support range: 90000/89000
Short-term resistance: 89000/92500
Operation tips: Holding above 89000 leans towards range-bound repair; breaking below may explore 87000/88000; a rebound needs to break above 92500 to alleviate short-term weakness.
ETH core price level and response logic
Support range: 3180/3100, lowest point 3000 (key transition point for bulls and bears, highest support intensity)
Short-term resistance: 3250/3300 (must break this level to confirm the continuation of the short-term repair trend)
Operation tips: If a shrinking stop-loss signal appears in the 3100-3180 range, it is advisable to take a small position to bet on a technical rebound; if it breaks below 3000, caution is needed as the adjustment magnitude may expand to 2950/3000
Subsequent risk events and market outlook
Short-term key catalyst: US initial jobless claims data
The US initial jobless claims data to be released tonight, as one of the core reference indicators for Federal Reserve policy formulation, may trigger new market volatility:
If the data is above expectations: It may strengthen the market's expectations for subsequent easing, driving a rebound repair during the US session;
If the data is below expectations: It will further validate the expectation of no rate cut in January, restricting the rebound space.
From a medium to long-term perspective: the sustainability of the rebound is limited, overall leaning towards consolidation
The current market is in a pause driven by macro factors + weakening technical aspects. Even if the evening data triggers a rebound, its sustainability and magnitude may be limited:
Core constraints: Internal divergence within the Federal Reserve intensifies, the pace of easing policy is unclear, and liquidity expectations are difficult to significantly heat up again.
Subsequent focus: Friday's Federal Reserve officials' speeches and next week's non-farm data will further clarify policy direction, providing new guidance for the market.
Core operation: Short-term volatility may gradually converge, focusing on the range around key levels to avoid blindly chasing highs and lows, and strictly controlling position risk.
