Everyone, I'm back. During the two weeks of no updates, Uncle San has not been idle; in fact, he has been busier than usual.
In terms of business development, I have met many new friends in Dubai to learn from their experiences. Soon, we will officially start the MCN plan for the studio, and the major node plan mentioned at the end of the research report will be formally included in the work schedule. Partners who have not received their commission rebates after years in the field can come to us. Over the years, this is an extra income that is no less than ordinary trading.
In terms of market dynamics, there has been almost no good trading space in the past half month. Apart from a few counterfeit leaders guiding a short-term market trend, the market has been stagnant. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating without breaking through the upper resistance or falling below the lower support. The market has been waiting, just like us, for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance after the meeting, and also for the final implementation of the yen interest rate hike.
Many events related to our industry have occurred in the past half month. In South Korea, a user’s assets were stolen, raising concerns about the security of CEX to new heights; BA officially announced that the number of registered users has exceeded 300 million under such fragile market conditions, an increase of 100 million compared to the same period last year, further solidifying its position as the industry leader. The strong never complain about the environment.
The most concerning and worrying thing should be the two public documents from domestic regulators, which have stirred up a lot of waves.
Uncle San believes that if we, as independent individuals, only engage in trading, making small profits, or participating in new investments in the crypto market, these two documents have nothing to do with us personally, and all other wording is just a reiteration. Everyone knows that the risks are self-borne, which is already beyond the framework of public order and good customs in the country.
Speaking of this, let me share a new concept I learned recently called the '360 Paradox.' It states that if you can uninstall 360 cleanly, it means you don’t need it; but if you cannot uninstall it cleanly, it indicates that you need to use it. Back to the crypto market, if your conclusion from the recent documents from 13 ministries and 7 associations is that trading cryptocurrencies is illegal, do you think your understanding is sufficient to support your cognitive growth in the crypto market? To dig a little deeper, in a situation where virtual currency trading is not allowed domestically, if you can't even find the basic downloading channels for major exchanges, are you sure your mind can support you in making money here?
Due to national conditions, our country's financial policies have always aimed to protect the most vulnerable groups with the lowest risk-bearing capacity.
Microstrategies have started to increase their positions again recently, BMNR is adding to its Ethereum holdings, with the current cost reduced to around 4000, showing a floating loss of over 3 billion USD; MSTR is going against the trend to increase its Bitcoin holdings, with an average cost price around 74000, yielding over 10 billion USD. Whether their counter-cyclical bottom-fishing has any short-term market stabilization prediction is temporarily unknown, but objectively this indeed reflects the unity of knowledge and action, because they are optimistic, so they increase their positions to buy when everyone else is panicking.
The voices of bulls and bears in the market have dissipated somewhat after the recent slump, and indeed, the bull and bear markets essentially have nothing to do with most people. The self-hypnosis after FOMO in the market will eventually be shattered by reality. When the next market rally occurs, I hope everyone can remain calm as they have been recently, and take the results within reach when the time comes.
Macro-wise, the overnight interest rate meeting at three o'clock tomorrow is expected to see a 25 basis point cut without any doubt. The market sentiment's focus is on Powell's upcoming speech and the level of internal dissent within the Federal Reserve regarding this rate cut, which brings a lot of uncertainty. Following that is the yen's interest rate hike on the 19th, which will still have a huge impact.
Back to the market:
Bitcoin: The pressure level at 92000 is very strong. Since October 7, the four-hour trend line has not effectively broken through, and the bullish sentiment in the market currently still relies on Ethereum; otherwise, there will still be a wave of technical pullbacks in the short term. The short-term market has been drawing doors, and unless it’s a speculative situation, the operational space is extremely limited. For the mid-term market, Uncle San continues to uphold his previous research report's view that before the market reaches a new low, there will be a slight upward spike to induce buying, followed by a significant downward adjustment until the weekly chart establishes a bottom to welcome the final main upward wave.
Ethereum: The four-hour trend of Ethereum has effectively broken through the trend pressure position since October 7, but it immediately faced strong pressure in the 3250 to 3400 range and has stagnated after multiple strong resistances from Bitcoin, with everyone waiting for the interest rate meeting. Let's not make any moves for now.
We'll talk about altcoins and other bottom signals after Bitcoin's signals come out.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 25 today. $ETH #美联储FOMC会议
