Upgrade of core macro variables in the market: The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting on December 19, bringing the policy rate up to 0.75%, which will set a new record high since 1995. From the perspective of capital flow logic, the upward movement of the yen interest rate center will inevitably drive the yen exchange rate to strengthen, and this process is usually accompanied by a large-scale concentration of yen arbitrage trading globally — such arbitrage trading relies on borrowing yen at low interest rates and converting it into other currencies to allocate risk assets, which has been one of the key sources of financing liquidity supporting the rebound of crypto assets such as $BTC $ETH . As the financing cost of the yen rises and the arbitrage space narrows, the funds relying on yen leverage in the cryptocurrency market will face substantial tightening pressure, which may trigger passive liquidation of leveraged positions in the short term, thereby amplifying market volatility. High-leverage traders need to pay close attention to this liquidity contraction risk and proactively optimize position structures and stop-loss settings.

#ETH走势分析