Uncle San is here to discuss the current market situation and core logic: ETH surged strongly yesterday, accurately reaching the first target of 3220! What will happen next?
The current market shows three key features: Liquidity concentration at target levels: The range of 3220-3250 is a densely accumulated liquidity zone from the previous period, with a large number of orders competing, and there is a demand for liquidity absorption, making the probability of a direct breakthrough in the short term low;
Profit-taking pressure from bulls is emerging: After this round of surge, bulls have substantial floating profits, facing concentrated profit-taking pressure near 3220, combined with overbought signals (RSI/MACD are both in high regions), short-term correction momentum is accumulating;
Fundamental and technical resonance support: $ETH successfully completed the upgrade, with continuous net inflow of funds forming a market support effect, and $ETH had previously broken the downward channel, with medium to long-term trends leaning towards strength, and the pullback is essentially a healthy correction within the trend;
Key price levels and the boundary between long and short
Pressure level system: First pressure area: 3220-3250, second pressure level: 3300. After effectively stabilizing at 3350, look up to 3500.
Support level system: First support area: 3150-3080, second support level: 3000, core support level: 2950 (the key boundary point for trend reversal, confirmation point after breaking through the downward channel). Breakout target: After effectively breaking below 2950, look down to 2820.
Trading strategy and operational principles
Current core strategy: Execute high selling and low buying within the range of 3220-2950, refuse to blindly chase highs and cut losses, confirm short positions based on pullbacks, and the core logic is to go long on stabilization of support;
Timing for short position layout: Near 3220 encountering resistance and falling back, or after the support at 3100-3080 fails during a pullback, one could try a light short;
Strictly set stop-loss: Short position stop-loss should be placed above 3250.
Operational discipline: Short positions aim to capture pullback profits, do not be greedy, and take profits when good;
Conditions for trend continuation:
If the callback does not fall below 2950 and forms a stabilization structure near 3000, the next upward target directly looks at 3500;
If the volume breaks through the liquidity zone at 3250, the short position should be abandoned, and one should observe or follow the trend to go long, targeting directly at 3300-3500;
Key points for risk control: 2950 serves as the boundary point of the trend. Once effectively broken (such as a 4-hour closing price below this position), one should be cautious of an expanded pullback to 2820, at which point one should avoid long positions and wait for confirmation of secondary support;
Core conclusion
Currently, ETH is in a contradictory state of strong trend + short-term overbought. The liquidity game between 3220-3250 will dominate the short-term trend. In terms of operations, one must remain patient and wait for clear signals before entering the market, avoiding blind positions in the middle of the range. Core logic: Holding 2950 means the trend continues, breaking 3250 opens space, whereas falling below 2950 enters a secondary pullback cycle.
