Cryptocurrency and American asset analysts claim that if the war between the USA and IRAN continues, a bear market cannot be ruled out.
Considering the continuity of the conflict between the USA and Iran throughout April, the projection for cryptocurrencies changes significantly, as the market begins to price in geopolitical risk + oil + interest + institutional flow.
The continuation of tensions has already been impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum in recent weeks, with sharp movements with each new news about attacks, ceasefire, or military escalation.
Macro scenario for April with ongoing war
The main expected effects are:
• Rise in Brent oil
• Risk of global inflation
• Possibility of higher interest rates for longer
• Temporary escape from risk assets
• Increase in volatility in BTC and ETH
Oil has risen above US$ 100 again, increasing inflationary pressure and making the Fed more cautious.
This tends to weigh on cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Projections for April – Bitcoin (with active conflict)
Main scenario (most likely – 45%)
If the conflict continues without resolution until mid-April, I see BTC operating in a pressure range:
US$ 62,000 BTC 70,000US$
Likely range:
• Support: US$ 62 thousand
• Average region: US$ 66 to 68 thousand
• Resistance: US$ 70 thousand
This scenario is most aligned with the continuation of fear in the market.
Strong bearish scenario (30%)
If there is a new military escalation, especially involving energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz, the market may enter strong risk aversion.
In this case:
• BTC Approximately US$ 58,000
And even a test of:
• BTC Approximately US$ 55,000
The market has already shown sensitivity to this type of news, with declines after the rejection of peace proposals.
Recovery scenario (25%)
If the conflict continues, but with signs of negotiation or military pause, BTC may react positively.
Range:
US$ 70,000 BTC 76,000US$
This scenario depends heavily on news of a ceasefire and flow via ETFs.
Ethereum for April
ETH tends to suffer more in a risk scenario.
Base range:
• US$ 1900 ETH 2,200US$
If the conflict worsens:
• ETH Approximately US$ 1,750
A summarized analysis for April:
• Bear market still possible: yes
• Chance of lateralization: high
• Risk of a new leg down: relevant
• Strong recovery: depends on ceasefire
