Fighting for 34 days.

Total war? The probability is less than 10%.

But the phrase 'localized escalation' is being redefined.

April 6th, is the red line.

The U.S. side laid down the words on this day: no compromise, or they will bomb Iran's energy facilities. It's not a warning, it's a countdown.

Iran has not retreated. Missiles are still being fired, and the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. They do not admit defeat verbally, but they have not stopped their actions.

Neither side has plans for ground invasion—neither can afford it.

So the current situation is very strange:

Yes, they are fighting. But the purpose of fighting is to sit down and talk.

Voices against the war in the U.S. cannot be suppressed, and several NATO member countries have directly said 'we will not participate in the war.' Iran is also struggling under sanctions. Both sides are hurting, but whoever calls for a stop first will lose face.

Thus, April 6 has become a natural stepping stone.

An agreement has been reached, a temporary ceasefire, and each side is boasting about their 'victory'.
Unable to reach an agreement, the intensity of airstrikes has increased, oil prices have surged, and the crypto market is shaking.

But a full-scale war? Less than 10%.

This is not optimism; both sides do not have that card in hand.

So what really needs to be monitored is not the front lines, but the diplomatic room on April 6.

A few words in there can determine the next phase of the market more than hundreds of missiles.