October 12th Su Xuan's Morning Analysis:
The market has fallen into a state of fluctuation after a sharp decline, operating in a range pattern in the short term. After the overnight big pie dipped to around 1094, it rebounded and is currently consolidating near 1108.
From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick shows an increase in bearish volume presenting a bearish candle, while the four-hour and hourly charts show a gradual decrease in bearish volume, but the overall trend remains downward. The upper resistance level is focused on 113500, with secondary resistance near 116000, and the short-term moving averages are arranged downward.
The four-hour cycle shows that after the previous downward move, the market has transitioned into an alternating pattern of minor bearish and bullish movements. The price is narrowly consolidating above the lower Bollinger Band, with balanced buying and selling forces, and no clear breakout direction, likely maintaining a sideways trend in the short term. On the hourly chart, the market first experienced a slight decline with three consecutive bearish candles, followed by a rebound with two consecutive bullish candles, with the price gradually approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Band. At the same time, the Bollinger Band channel continues to narrow, limiting the range of fluctuations, and the short-term volatility has entered a low state.
From a macroeconomic analysis, recent fluctuations in the US stock market have led to synchronous adjustments in Chinese assets, with increasing disagreement in the market regarding the future direction of A-shares. The US has continued to raise interest rates over the past two years, with rates reaching decades-high levels, resulting in soaring corporate financing costs and weakened consumer willingness. Previously, technology stocks, especially those related to AI, were excessively hyped, and after the bubble burst, the US stock market lacks support. In addition, US economic data is mixed, inflation has not been fully controlled, and signs of weakness in the job market have emerged, leading to heightened concerns about economic recession. These factors have collectively contributed to the adjustment in the US stock market.
Intraday, short-term recommendations to enter:
Big pie long: 109000-109300
Target towards: around 111800-112200
Ethereum long: 3670-3690
Target towards: around 3780-3800
