Some friends are very concerned about next week's financial market trends, here are my personal views:

1. Influencing factors: The most important factor currently is the China-U.S. trade war, which is driven by sudden events.

2. Event intensity: The intensity this time is very high, Dongda has given the largest rare earth sanction intensity in history, far exceeding market expectations; because this is a trump card, this time it must be a substantial concession; then for the West, whether they will quickly concede is uncertain, there may be a very intense game process--》which will bring considerable and complex market fluctuations.

3. Financial environment: Currently, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks are all at high levels; sudden negative events at market highs generally bring significant adjustment shocks, for example, A-shares and U.S. stocks may experience fluctuations of around 5-10 points.

4. Time factor: At the end of the month, there is an APEC meeting, and both parties' representatives will attend the meeting together, so it is optimistically estimated that some conclusions can be discussed before the end of the month.

5. Outcome speculation: Dongda should have the upper hand, the reason being that this time they have played a trump card, while the other side is currently passive.

6. Investment response: Before the event shows signs of easing, there will be complex and intense fluctuations, and it is best to avoid this stage, focusing on defense. In the long run, if Dongda can secure more space for technological development this time, it could be a significant boon for the technology sector in the A-share market.

7. Extreme scenario: If both sides break down negotiations and enter a prolonged, complex game, it may lead to a long-term adjustment in both markets (small probability).

8. Regarding the cryptocurrency market: Continuous overselling before reaching an agreement will bring some short-term bottom-fishing opportunities, but at most it will be a rebound #美国加征关税 $BTC .