๐ Will Bitcoin Drop Below $100K? Hereโs My Take After the $102K Dip
After Bitcoin briefly fell to ~$102,000 during a massive liquidation event, the fear of dropping below the six-figure mark is back in full force.
๐ง 1. Long-Term Holders Arenโt Selling โ Thatโs Huge
One of the most reassuring signals right now is how long-term holders (wallets holding BTC for 180 days+) reacted during the drop:
๐ They didnโt move their coins.
Meanwhile, newer investors were the ones selling โ but at the same time, the total number of BTC holders actually increased.
๐ To me, thatโs a classic shakeout. Smart money stayed calm. Dip-buyers stepped in. Panic didnโt spread across the whole market.
๐ 2. RSI Flipped Bullish โ Momentum May Be Shifting
From a technical standpoint, we just printed a bullish divergence on the RSI:
Before the crash: bearish divergence (price up, RSI down) โ led to correction.
Now: bullish divergence (price down, RSI up) โ suggesting sellers are losing steam.
๐ Thatโs often a sign that the worst is over, and momentum is flipping bullish again.
๐ 3. Price Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $111,600, right near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (~$111,400). Thatโs a critical support zone.
If BTC closes daily above this zone, Iโm targeting:
$113,600
$116,800
$120,800
But if BTC drops and closes below $101,900, that would invalidate this setup and open the door to sub-$100K prices.
๐ For now, the structure leans bullish โ unless $101,900 fails.
โ
My Conclusion
Based on what Iโm seeing:
Long-term holders are steady
RSI signals a possible reversal
Price structure is still intact
Unless we see a confirmed break below $101,900, I believe a drop below $100,000 is unlikely in the short term. The setup favors a rebound, potentially pushing back toward $120K in the coming weeks.
โ ๏ธ Not financial advice โ just sharing my personal analysis. Always DYOR and manage your risk.
