The profitability of the XRP (XRP) supply has dropped to a 21-month low, while spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) register their first negative month.
Too late whales show that large holders do not quickly step out. The difference between weakness among retail and institutional parties on one side and hesitant whales on the other side creates an uncertain picture for the fifth largest cryptocurrency based on market capitalization.
XRP holders underwater and declining institutional demand
On-chain data from Glassnode show that only 43.4% of the outstanding XRP is in profit at a price of $1.33. This metric has not been this low since July 2024.
This means that more than 56% of the XRP tokens are now being held at a loss. This decline shows how severe the recovery of XRP has been. Six consecutive red monthly candles have caused the token to drop by more than 60%.
“With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who bought above $2 in the past 12 months are now realizing losses of $20 million to $110 million per day since November 2025,” Glassnode added.
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Meanwhile, institutional demand via spot ETFs has significantly decreased. Data from SoSoValue shows that March 2026 marked the first month of net outflow since the launch of the spot XRP ETFs at the end of 2025, with approximately $31.16 million flowing out of these products. Early April already added another $1.25 million in outflow.
The total assets under management in the US-listed spot XRP ETFs have decreased from a peak of approximately $1.65 billion in January to around $950.58 million now.
Despite the bearish signals from profitability metrics and ETF flows, one data point stands out. According to analyst Arab Chain, whale inflows to Binance have dropped to the lowest level since early 2026.
“Daily whale inflow to Binance was only about 12.60 million XRP, a relatively low level compared to previous periods when hundreds of millions of XRP were deposited on some days. At the same time, the 30-day cumulative flow indicator dropped to around 1.44 billion XRP, one of the lowest levels since early 2026,” the post stated.
Fewer whale transfers to exchanges means there is directly less supply to sell. This can limit downward movements and create stricter conditions for a potential recovery. However, this pattern alone does not guarantee a recovery.
“Historically, large inflows to trading platforms are a possible sign of increased selling pressure, while decreasing inflow indicates that investors are keeping their assets off exchanges — which is relatively positive for price stability,” the analyst added.
The difference between declining ETF demand, rising losses among holders, and the quiet stance of whales indicates a market caught between two forces.
Whether underwater holders and institutional players withdrawing lead to further capitulation, or whether less selling pressure from whales stabilizes the XRP price will likely determine the direction for XRP in April.
At this moment, the altcoin is still moving together with the larger market. According to data from BeInCrypto Markets, the XRP price has decreased by 1.89% in the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, the price was trading at $1.32.
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