Capital.com’s senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda warned that Bitcoin (BTC) faces a 'binary risk' as President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran on Tuesday at 8 PM ET forces traders into a scenario where it is pure escalation or relief.
BTC fell below $69,000 on Tuesday after tipping $70,000 the day before, when Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump declared the deadline as 'final'.
Trump's fourth deadline and crypto response
Trump has demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk attacks on all bridges and power plants in the country. This marks the fourth time the president has extended and reversed his ultimatum since March 21.
A fifth extension is still possible if Trump sees that a deal can be reached, but he said on Monday that it was “highly unlikely” he would delay again.
Rodda told BeInCrypto that markets are at a standstill waiting for one of two outcomes.
“Either the attacks happen and the situation escalates, or they don’t, and then we get a massive relief rally. Bitcoin remains in a trading range of about $60,000 to $75,000,” said Rodda.
He added that a major escalation would hit BTC through increased U.S. interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, both driven by rising oil prices.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has consolidated around 100 and appears poised for a breakout, a sign that supports Rodda's warning.
The DXY structure reflects previous fractal patterns from 2014 and 2021 that preceded prolonged BTC declines.
“If DXY breaks upward, USDT dominance will likely follow… which naturally means we could see the next downward movement in Bitcoin,” said analyst Kyle Doops.
Rodda also pointed out strength beneath the surface.
“It should be noted how robust Bitcoin has been, and there are preliminary, but far from confirmed, signals that it is about to bottom out,” he said.
A bearish flag in the timeframe
The technical structure provides a new layer of seriousness. BTC has consolidated within a bearish flag pattern for about 60 days, corresponding to the 54-day period of the previous bearish flag before it broke down.
It is still worth mentioning that declining volume through the pattern makes rallies difficult to trust.
Daily cryptocurrency exchange volume has retreated to levels last seen during the FTX collapse, indicating that sentiment has fallen to historical lows.
Similarly, crude oil, as a leading signal, has tested resistance four times. A breakout toward $128 per barrel could impact all risk assets and apply further pressure on BTC.
Institutional inflow and lower volatility
Elsewhere, analysts at QCP Capital pointed out that markets are increasingly ignoring Trump's escalation pattern after four consecutive extension deadlines.
Crude oil has weakened and stock futures remain stable, indicating less urgency around the looming attack threat.
Institutional demand has remained persistently positive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reported a net inflow of $1.32 billion in March, their first positive month since October 2025, thus breaking a four-month streak of outflows.
MicroStrategy has also resumed Bitcoin purchases after a brief pause.
In the options market, implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the conflict began on February 28. Skew is normalizing as well, suggesting that the need for hedging has subsided despite geopolitical unrest.
Data from Polymarket shows that traders only assign a 3% probability of a ceasefire by April 7, but 30% by April 30.
Reports also suggest that Trump may delay the deadline again if a deal seems close, adding yet another variable to an already binary setup.
Regardless of whether Tuesday brings attacks or yet another extension, BTC's reaction will test whether the preliminary bottom formations Rodda identified can survive both a geopolitical breaking point and a bear flag approaching the end of its life.