The market is very likely to test the position just above 10,000 again, with a second bottom.

From a macro perspective, this trade war is different from April. In April, Trump was applying extreme pressure and making unreasonable demands, then took a step back to force China to submit; this is Trump's old tactic.

Later, there were three rounds of talks between China and the U.S., but they didn't come up with much.

This time, China is taking the initiative to globally control rare earths against the U.S., learning from the U.S. to exercise long-arm jurisdiction. When Trump saw this, he got furious and wrote a little essay that caused the major disaster in the crypto world on 10.11.

If America can use long-arm jurisdiction against my chips, then I can use long-arm jurisdiction against your rare earths.

This time, China won't compromise. It's not the U.S. that wants to start a trade war; it's China that wants to start one. China is actively engaging in this battle.

Because

1. The trade volume between China and the U.S. has dropped to 8%, making the trade card meaningless; tariffs can be raised or not.

2. China has developed a 7nm lithography machine, rendering chip sanctions ineffective.

Trump has no cards left. If he still wants to apply extreme pressure, he must play a bigger card, like a financial war, threatening to delist Chinese companies, or using the Taiwan card.

Therefore, from a macro news perspective, Trump either needs to play a bigger card to pressure China, such as delisting Chinese companies,

or he has to back down and negotiate with China for a favorable outcome. How is that possible??? Trump is such a proud person; if he could have negotiated a deal, he would have done it long ago.

Raising tariffs and chip sanctions are meaningless now; it's a one against three situation.

Trump must play a bigger card, and we may soon hear worse news coming out.

From the market perspective, both the U.S. stock market and crypto are at high levels, making it difficult to rise before the news comes out; they are still falling.

Trump's little essay was merely the fuse that led to the disaster on 10.11.

Next, the market will likely see a second test, which is highly probable.