🏳️ Two weeks of ceasefire between the USA and Iran. The world breathed a sigh of relief. What does this mean for the market?
The world froze. The news of a two-week ceasefire between the USA and Iran broke through the information dome and instantly changed the charts. This is not a final peace, but rather a technical pause, yet for markets that live on edge, even 14 days is an eternity.
🛢 Oil: Goodbye, war premium?
The first to respond was the 'black blood' of the economy. Brent crude oil, which just yesterday stormed the $110 mark due to fears of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has started to cool down. Investors are pricing in de-escalation: if tankers can go without the risk of being fired upon, the 'war premium' of $15-20 per barrel will quickly evaporate. We expect a correction to $85-90 if the truce does not break down in the first 48 hours.
🌍 Global economy: A breath of fresh air
For the Fed and central banks of Europe, this is a gift from above. The drop in energy prices is a direct blow to inflation. If oil holds at low levels for these two weeks, the rhetoric of regulators may soften. Less inflation = less pressure on rates. Stock markets have already started to 'green up', coming out of hibernation.
🤖 Crypto: 'Digital gold' or risk asset?
Here the situation is the most interesting. On one hand, the decrease in geopolitical tension reduces Bitcoin's status as a 'safe haven'. But on the other hand — the influx of liquidity into risk assets (Risk-On) always pushes $BTC and $ETH up.
When macroeconomics stabilizes, crypto grows faster than anything else. The truce gives hope that capital will stop hiding in cash and will start flowing into altcoins. However, remember: this is just 14 days. Any random shot in the bay — and we will see 'swings' on the charts.
