Several Polymarket traders have made a lot by betting on a ceasefire between the USA and Iran, where one user reportedly received about 3,500% profit.
The winnings came after the USA and Iran reduced tensions, leading to a rise in stocks, precious metals, and crypto. Now analysts and market watchers wonder if these exact bets indicate that it's about more than just luck.
Polymarket US-Iran winnings spark debate about insider trading
The analytics company Lookonchain marked trader BlueHorseshoe86, who is said to have earned 194,000 USD on a bet for a ceasefire between the USA and Iran. That profit was added to a previous 260,000 USD that he received on a wager about “Maduro out,” related to January and the capture of Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro.
”Hans total profit is now 440,000 USD, all from betting on 'Maduro out' and the ceasefire between the USA and Iran,” said Lookonchain.
Another trader turned 13,200 USD into 477,544 USD, a profit of about 3,500%.
”He really bet everything he had in the account this time. What did he know?” wondered a market observer.
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A third wallet, tracked as 'suspicious' by Polymarket History, is said to have earned over 400,000 USD by guessing both the correct timing of Iran's military operation and the ceasefire afterward.
”Created just before the operation. Two perfect bets. More than 400,000 USD in profit,” the post said.
There is no confirmed evidence of insider trading, but the large, well-timed profits have raised concerns about insider trading on these platforms. This is not an isolated case, but part of a pattern of suspicious insider activity on such platforms.
The pattern of suspicious profits has prompted both market platform operators and American lawmakers to respond. The lawmakers have proposed legislation that would increase oversight and prevent politicians or officials from betting.
Polymarket themselves published new rules for market integrity. The new rules clearly prohibit trading on stolen confidential information, acting on illegal tips, and betting on outcomes the user can influence.
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