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Flera Polymarket-handlare har tjänat mycket på att satsa på vapenvila mellan USA och Iran, där en användare rapporteras ha fått cirka 3 500 % vinst.

Vinsterna kom efter att USA och Iran minskade spänningarna, vilket ledde till uppgång på aktier, ädelmetaller och krypto. Nu undrar analytiker och marknadsbevakare om dessa exakta satsningar visar att det handlar om mer än bara tur.

Polymarket US-Iran-vinster startar debatt om insiderhandel

Analysföretaget Lookonchain märkte ut handlaren BlueHorseshoe86, som ska ha tjänat 194 000 USD på en satsning om vapenvila mellan USA och Iran. Den vinsten lades till tidigare 260 000 USD som han fick på ett vad om “Maduro ut”, kopplat till januari och tillfångatagandet av Venezuelas president Nicolás Maduro.

”Hans totala vinst är nu 440 000 USD, allt från vad på ”Maduro ut” och vapenvilan mellan USA och Iran”, la Lookonchain till.

En annan handlare gjorde om 13 200 USD till 477 544 USD, en vinst på cirka 3 500 %.

”Han satsade verkligen allt han hade på kontot denna gång. Vad visste han?” undrade en marknadsbevakare.

Följ oss på X för att få de senaste nyheterna direkt

En tredje plånbok, som spårades som ”misstänkt” av Polymarket History, ska ha tjänat över 400 000 USD på att gissa både rätt tidpunkt för Irans militära operation och vapenvilan efteråt.

”Skapad precis före operationen. Två perfekta satsningar. Mer än 400 000 USD i vinst”, stod det i inlägget.

Det finns ingen bekräftad bevis på insiderhandel, men de stora, väl tajmade vinsterna har ökat oron för insiderhandel på dessa plattformar. Det här är inget enskilt fall, utan en del av ett mönster av misstänkt insideraktivitet på sådana plattformar.

Mönstret med misstänkta vinster har fått både operatörer av marknadsplattformar och amerikanska lagstiftare att reagera. De lagstiftare har lagt fram lagförslag som skulle öka tillsynen och stoppa politiker eller tjänstemän från att satsa.

Polymarket själva publicerade nya regler för marknadens integritet. De nya reglerna förbjuder tydligt handel på stulen konfidentiell information, att agera på olagliga tips och att satsa på utfall användaren kan påverka.

Prenumerera på vår YouTube-kanal för att se ledare och journalister dela sina expertanalyser

The Bitcoin (BTC) price is at 71,552 USD after forming a positive continuation pattern on the daily chart indicating a possible rise of 11%.

Friday's American CPI report for March is expected to show that inflation increases to 3.3% year-on-year. But an increase of about 1,300% in weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows and larger outflows from exchanges shows that the demand for BTC can handle this headwind.

Bitcoin price forms a positive pattern as ETF inflows increase significantly

Between the end of March and April 7, the Bitcoin price formed a cup-and-handle formation on the daily chart. It is a positive pattern where a rounded recovery forms the cup and a slight decline creates the handle before a possible rise. The rounded bottom of the cup occurred during the correction at the end of March. The current decline from the peak on April 7 shows the handle. The pattern also indicates a possible rise of 11% if confirmed.

U.S. federal prosecutors have clearly rejected Tornado Cash founder Roman Storm's attempt to use a new ruling from the Supreme Court to have his criminal charges dropped. They say the ruling is completely irrelevant to his case.

In a letter submitted on Tuesday, the Department of Justice responded to Storm's attorneys. Storm's team had referenced the ruling in Cox Communications v. Sony Music Entertainment, arguing that it could be beneficial for Storm.

The DOJ says that the Cox ruling does not apply to Storm's criminal case

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to 72,000 USD after the USA and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, but key options indicators show that the rise is due to removed concerns and not new optimistic positions.

The ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, coincides with BTC and Ethereum (ETH) options worth 2.18 billion USD expiring on Friday. On the same day, delegations from Washington and Tehran are expected in Islamabad for further negotiations.

The ceasefire significantly affects the markets.

President Donald Trump agreed late on Tuesday to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir mediated the agreement. Trump called Iran's ten-point proposal 'a useful basis' for lasting peace.

In the latest report on internet crime, the FBI shows that the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) recorded losses of $11,366 billion in cryptocurrency fraud during 2025, an increase of 22% from the previous year.

The annual report also showed 181,565 cryptocurrency-related complaints, which is an increase of 21% compared to the previous year. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000.

A group lost $4.4 billion in cryptocurrency fraud during 2025

Aave (AAVE) exchange reserves have increased to 2.23 million tokens, up from 2.07 million since the beginning of February, when several large investor groups are reducing their holdings.

Binance now has approximately 1.63 million AAVE, up from 1.57 million during the same period. This trend means that more tokens are being moved to exchanges, which creates concerns about selling pressure in the short term.

Sales by large investors are increasing among various owner groups

This change has caused the reserves to now be above their 90-day moving average, following a downward trend that began in April 2025.

Iran and the US have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. This means a pause in one of the most dangerous military conflicts in the Middle East in recent times. Pakistan's Prime Minister negotiated the pause after personally asking both sides to halt the fighting.

This sensitive ceasefire leaves almost all important questions unresolved. Reports of fighting in the area are still coming in.

What you need to know about the Iran-US two-week ceasefire

Question: Why did Trump agree to pause the bombing campaign against Iran?

Bitcoin rose to around 71,500 USD late on April 7 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause in planned military actions against Iran, which could mean the conflict may de-escalate.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he agreed to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks following direct talks with Pakistan's Prime Minister and Army Chief Asim Munir.

He added that the pause applies if Iran agrees to "fully, immediately, and securely" reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A new wave of criticism online is growing now after Pakistan's request to extend Trump's Iran deadline. Users are questioning whether the decision was truly independent.

The discussion is about the revision history of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's post on X. The history shows an early version of the message and a later, more detailed version. In it, it clearly states that he wants a two-week extension and that the Suez Canal should be reopened.

Some users believe this shows coordination behind the scenes. The theory is simple: if the USA agrees to an extension, Washington can present it as a response to Pakistan's request. Thus, the USA does not have to appear to yield to pressure.

Oil prices fell sharply late on April 7 while Bitcoin rose to 70,000 USD as markets reacted to signs that the USA and Iran may soon reach a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough.

CNN reported from a regional source that 'good news is expected from both sides soon', and there are expectations that an agreement could be finalized before President Donald Trump's deadline expires. This change in tone came just hours after the markets prepared for the risk of increased tensions in the Middle East.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has decided to tighten regulations for stablecoins. This shows that these digital assets are now expected to operate differently in the USA.

On April 7, the FDIC approved a proposal to implement key parts of the GENIUS Act. The regulations set requirements for stablecoin issuers, who must have secure reserves, be able to handle withdrawals, have sufficient capital, and manage their risks.

Simply put, the FDIC is bringing stablecoins closer to the banking system. Those issuing stablecoins must hold safe assets such as cash or U.S. Treasury securities. They must be able to demonstrate that they can always redeem tokens for equivalent value, one for one.

The global public debt is now approaching 100% of the world's GDP, a level we haven't seen since World War II.

The IMF warns: debt is high and borrowing costs are rising, thus governments must soon make difficult economic choices.

IMF's debt warning in numbers

The IMF's chart tells a dramatic story. Global public debt as a share of GDP has increased sharply during historical crises: World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, the financial crisis of 2008, and COVID-19.

But today's developments are different. After World War II, debts decreased rapidly, but now forecasts instead show that the debt continues to rise. The IMF expects that global public debt will soon exceed levels from World War II.

Morgan Stanley spot Bitcoin ETF, under ticker MSBT, begins trading on NYSE Arca on April 8 with a management fee of 0.14%. This is the lowest among all American spot Bitcoin funds.

The product makes Morgan Stanley the first major American bank to issue its own spot Bitcoin ETF instead of just reselling other fund companies' products. Around 16,000 advisors oversee 6.2 trillion USD in client assets, so it concerns more than just a ticker.

Smart capital follows this on day one

Onchain stablecoin volume is expected to reach 33 trillion USD by 2026. This is the main message from a Ripple brochure at XRP Tokyo 2026.

The major XRPL conference takes place on April 7 in Japan. The message to fintech companies is clear: stablecoins are no longer optional.

The stablecoin argument to fintech companies

The brochure discusses Ripple's offering. It states: “When onchain volume is expected to exceed 33 trillion USD this year, stablecoins are now the new standard for global liquidity. Modern fintech companies no longer ask if they should use stablecoins. Instead, they ask how quickly they can integrate stablecoins to stay ahead.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is still below 70,000 USD on Tuesday. Traders are contemplating various signals from Trump's hard Iran ultimatum and reports of positive ceasefire talks.

President Trump has set a deadline at 8:00 PM ET for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. This has made Tuesday a crucial day for risk assets.

War signals pull BTC in both directions

Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that the war will soon come to an end and that military objectives have been achieved.

At the same time, a senior American official told Fox News that Washington has direct contact with Tehran. The official described the talks as 'positive' and believes in a breakthrough before the end of the day.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price is at 177.64 USD on the two-day chart, up 5.31% in recent days but still down 6% so far this year. April is a unique time for the stock. The Iran conflict may calm down within a few weeks, the FOMC meets on April 28–29, and this could be Jerome Powell's last meeting as chairman. Additionally, positioning for the report at the end of May is already starting now.

The technical structure, options data, and institutional cash flows each show a part of what April can bring. The relationship between these parts points to two possible scenarios.

Fear in the American stock market is now at its highest level in over 20 years. The ROBO Put/Call Ratio has reached 1.0 for the first time in at least 20 years.

The value is higher than the peak of 0.91 during the financial crisis of 2008 and 0.95 during the downturn of the pandemic in 2020. The ratio has doubled since December, which is the fastest increase since the bear market started in 2022.

“This ratio shows buy orders from individuals in the options market. Now, retail investors are buying almost as many put options as call options... Fear is therefore becoming exaggerated in the market,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter.

Binance presents Spot Price Range Execution Rule (PRER), a new rule that cancels tag orders when the execution price falls outside a fluctuating fair price range.

The rule will come into effect gradually from April 14, 2026. It directly addresses spot market issues that arose during the flash crash on October 10, 2025.

What triggered Binance PRER

On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. This triggered the largest single liquidation wave in crypto history.

Binance has now expanded its loan offerings for institutions with higher leverage, broader access, and fixed interest rates, despite the company's chief compliance officer (CCO) reportedly considering resigning.

The update raises the maximum leverage limit from 4x to 5x for all approved risk units. Know Your Business (KYB)-verified customers at VIP 1 and above can now qualify, instead of previously VIP 5.

What has changed in Binance's loan terms

The loan-to-value ratio (LTV) increased from 75% to 80%, while the transfer-out LTV went to 83%. Margin calls and liquidation levels remain at 85% and 90%, respectively.

Investment products with digital assets received 224 million USD in inflows last week. XRP took the largest share of the new capital, but poor macroeconomic news reversed the trend towards the end of the period.

The recovery was uneven between regions and assets. Switzerland accounted for the largest portion of inflows, while Ethereum (ETH) continued to lose capital as investors were cautious due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act.

Switzerland leads, USA loses ground

This week, inflows mainly came from European investors. Switzerland topped the list with 157.5 million USD in inflows according to CoinShares. Germany and Canada followed with 27.7 million USD and 11.2 million USD respectively.