Prediction markets see significant activity around the development of crypto prices. Tens of millions USD in volume have been bet on Bitcoin's price in January, along with high-volume contracts for Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.
The large amount of capital placed on short-term price bets makes many worry about the future of crypto. These quick, binary bets resemble more speculation than long-term investment.
Polymarket users are betting on crypto prices
Crypto polling is rapidly increasing on Polymarket. A contract, which is still active until the end of the week, has already reached nearly 67 million USD in trading volume linked to the price of Bitcoin at the end of January.
So far, most participants have bet on a negative scenario, where 85,000 USD is the most popular low price. At the same time, many believe in Bitcoin in the long term.
In another poll with over 9,3 million USD in volume, most believe that Bitcoin will reach 100,000 USD before the end of the year.
Price speculation is not only about Bitcoin. Many are also betting on Ethereum and other major altcoins, such as Solana and XRP.
Traders believe that ETH will fall to 2,600 USD. They also expect SOL to trade around 110 USD in February and that XRP will drop to 1.80 USD.
These predictions come as the crypto market struggles to find new momentum. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6% in the past week and has not reached 90,000 USD again.
The market's recent results have led to increased concern about a potential bear phase. At the same time, price volatility drives participation, even as analysts question the fundamentals. Traders are now using the market's weakness to bet.
The question now is whether this means a new phase for crypto has begun, and what that might mean for the market's long-term role.
Will betting hinder crypto's investment progress?
Much of the crypto's development over the past year is based on its integration as a traditional investment. Key milestones included Bitcoin and Ethereum being offered via exchange-traded funds.
Other progress included listings of crypto companies on major exchanges and more tokenized traditional assets on blockchain-based systems.
But as prediction markets are expected to grow significantly by 2026, the future of crypto seems to be approaching a crossroads.
The number of bets related to short-term price movements has generated hundreds of millions USD in turnover. As these bets attract more capital and focus, crucial market factors risk being overlooked.
Instead, the conversation may focus more on probabilities and group behavior than on real-world use or economic integration. At the same time, the well-known odds on prediction markets may influence how traders act.
The large volume in these markets raises the question of whether crypto is now becoming a way to profit from volatility.
If price games continue to attract more capital than long-term investments, the market may shift to focus more on rapid price movements than on creating value.
