Bitcoin has now entered a corrective phase after its latest decline, but the trend still looks stable when we look at the market structure.
The price development looks more like a controlled pullback than a collapse. This movement fits into a pattern that usually precedes a continued rise.
Bitcoin gains have decreased
If we look through a trader's eyes, the latest decline does not seem like panic selling. Instead, weak investors are disappearing while larger and more patient players are slowly buying back in.
This rotation often marks the transition from late selling to early accumulation. As liquidity grows, conditions for increased volatility upward are created.
On-chain data strengthens this picture. The profit in the entire network has clearly decreased. The share of the Bitcoin supply held at a profit has dropped from 75.3% to 66.9%. This movement means that profits are now below the historical floor around 69.1%. This area has often indicated that the price stabilizes.
When more holders are at a loss, selling pressure usually decreases. Few want to sell at a loss, and therefore they prefer to wait for better prices.
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Historically, declines below this profit level have acted as a reset. The price usually builds a new base before the next clear rise. Although a shorter period of weak levels recently broke the pattern, the current price is still much lower than previous peaks.
The behavior of long-term investors also supports a positive development. The LTH NUPL metric (Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) shows that profits are approaching levels where holders typically change their behavior.
When LTH NUPL falls below 0.60, long-term holders usually reduce their selling or stop selling altogether. Instead, they wait for better times. In previous cycles, this has marked the start of new accumulation and reduced selling pressure, allowing the price to recover slowly.
The BTC price is ambitious
Technically, the Bitcoin price remains in a rising, expanding wedge. The price recently bounced at the lower boundary of this structure and is now trading near 88,475 USD. The next step for buyers is to get above 89,241 USD and reach the psychologically important level of 90,000 USD. If the price goes over 90,000 USD, it shows stronger short-term momentum and strength in the pattern.
If a confirmed breakout from the wedge occurs, the chances of reaching new heights increase. A rise towards 98,000 USD is likely to be the next major target. After that, there may be a recovery down towards 95,000 USD to create support. That base is important before the price can be pushed up towards 100,000 USD.
But one cannot ignore the risk of decline. If sellers return or if the macro situation worsens, Bitcoin could fall below 87,210 USD. In that case, the risk of a deeper decline towards 84,698 USD increases. Then the positive outlook would be delayed, and breakout theory would have to wait.