Bitcoin is approaching an important macro event while U.S. politicians are trying to avoid yet another government shutdown before the deadline on January 30. The market is under pressure after a failed rally in January and a clear change in sentiment.
Historically, bitcoin has not been a safe haven during American government shutdowns. Instead, the price has typically followed the prevailing market trend.
Why an American shutdown is relevant again.
The increasing risk of shutdown is due to Congress not having completed voting on several budget proposals for the fiscal year 2026. The temporary funding expires on January 30, and the negotiations have stalled, especially regarding funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
If politicians do not decide on a new temporary solution or an annual budget before the deadline, parts of the government will shut down immediately. The market now views January 30 as a decisive macro event.
Bitcoin's price in January 2026 has already shown increased uncertainty. In the middle of the month, BTC briefly rose above the range of 95,000–98,000 USD, but the price quickly fell back.
Bitcoin's historical development during American shutdowns has not provided support for a strong increase.
During the four most recent shutdowns over the past decade, bitcoin decreased in price or continued its existing decline on three occasions.
Only a brief shutdown in February 2018 resulted in a rise. That increase came after a technical bounce, not because of the shutdown.
This pattern is clear. Shutdowns often increase volatility but rarely affect the direction. Bitcoin tends to reinforce the existing trend rather than reverse it.
Miner data shows stress, not strength.
Fresh on-chain data shows yet another warning signal. According to CryptoQuant, several large American mining companies have significantly reduced production in recent days as winter storms forced them to cut back on electricity consumption.
Daily bitcoin production decreased at companies like CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and IREN. Reduced production may temporarily decrease supply but also indicates stress in the mining sector.
Limited supply from miners has historically been unable to offset greater selling from macro events if demand is weak. Right now, demand is low.
Realized losses are increasing.
Net realized profit and loss data (NRPL) reinforces the cautious picture. In recent weeks, realized losses have increased, and large profit-taking has been fewer than at the beginning of 2025.
This shows that investors are leaving their positions at poor prices instead of moving their capital confidently. Such behavior often belongs to the end of a cycle, when investors reduce risk, not build new positions.
In this situation, negative news about the macroeconomy could create larger downturns instead of prolonged upswings.
This is how Bitcoin may react on January 30.
If the U.S. government shuts down on January 30, bitcoin is likely to react more like a risky asset than a safe haven.
The most likely scenario is a brief period of increased volatility downward. A test of January's low aligns with how the market has reacted to previous shutdowns and today's market structure. Any potential recovery would likely be short and technical unless liquidity increases significantly.
A sharp rise solely due to shutdown news is unlikely. Bitcoin has rarely surged during shutdowns without positive inflows and better sentiment, which is lacking now.
Bitcoin faces the risk of shutdown from a weak position. ETF outflows, increasing losses, issues for miners, and rejected resistance levels point to caution.
As January 30 approaches, the shutdown may become a stress test for an already uncertain market.
Right now, history and data show that bitcoin's reaction will reflect the prevailing trend rather than go against it.
