Two Bitcoin (BTC) whales have taken enormous opposite positions with high leverage, totaling $51 million, while the fragile ceasefire between the USA and Iran shows signs of breaking down over Lebanon.
These high-risk leveraged bets reflect the extreme uncertainty currently plaguing the crypto markets, with BTC trading near $71,500 after a 4.5% rise overnight linked to the announcement of a ceasefire.
Whale duel puts $51 million at stake
On-chain-sporeren Lookonchain reported that two whale wallets are taking opposite positions. Wallet 0x2fc3 opened a 30x long position at 325.88 BTC, worth approximately $23.22 million, with a liquidation price of $70,092.
In the opposite direction, wallet 0xedf2 opened a 40x short position on 400 BTC, worth approximately $ 28.5 million, with liquidation at $ 72 183.
The close distance between both liquidation levels and BTC's current price makes this one of the most compressed whale duels in recent weeks.
A movement of just 2% in either direction could trigger millions in forced liquidations.
Violations of the ceasefire threaten the rise.
The macroeconomic picture remains just as unstable. Kobeissi Letter reported that Iran warned of withdrawing from the two-week-long ceasefire if Israel continues its military operations in Lebanon.
A few minutes later, the White House reportedly stated to Axios that the agreement does not include Lebanon at all.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged all parties to show restraint and pointed out that violations had already been reported.
“Violations of the ceasefire have been reported in several areas of the conflict zone and undermine the peace process,” stated Sharif.
Trump cracks down on unauthorized ceasefire statements.
As a new confusing element, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that many unauthorized agreements and letters from parties with no role in the negotiations were circulating.
He called the authors “complete frauds” and “charlatans,” and warned that a federal investigation would expose them.
Trump emphasized that there was only one set of meaningful points that underpinned the ceasefire, and that these would be discussed behind closed doors.
He also criticized CNN for using as a primary source a person he believes has no authority to claim involvement.
The statement adds further ambiguity about what the ceasefire actually entails. With Iran threatening to withdraw, Israel pressing further in Lebanon, and Trump dismissing competing frameworks, the ceasefire appears very fragile.
The implications are direct for Bitcoin. Short positions worth $ 252 million were liquidated within 24 hours after the first announcement of the ceasefire.
Whether the rise holds may depend less on the positioning of whales and more on what happens next in Beirut, Islamabad, and Washington.