In the past 24 hours, market sentiment has clearly improved. With the US and Iran reaching a 'two-week temporary ceasefire', geopolitical risks have rapidly decreased, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets. BTC briefly surged to 72,700, then slightly retraced to around 71,000; ETH also strengthened, regaining the 2,200 mark, and altcoins followed with a general increase, shifting the overall atmosphere from panic back to 'cautiously optimistic'. There are also new changes in the funding landscape. Institutions are starting to re-engage, and the signals for traditional finance entering the market are clearer; combined with falling oil prices, market pressure has eased. However, it is worth noting that there is still a small outflow from ETFs, indicating that this wave is more about emotional recovery, and a trend reversal is still not on the table; short-term fluctuations are expected to continue.
In this environment, a short-term rebound in Bitcoin is actually quite normal and may even lead to a wave of altcoin movements.
Return to Bitcoin itself. (Yesterday's article also discussed the future path of Bitcoin) https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/post/310174183574289
It has been mentioned before that this period can be considered for short-term long positions.
From the K-line perspective, the target of this rebound is likely to touch the previous high nearby, around 75,000.
If the sentiment heats up a bit more and it pushes to 78,000, it’s not entirely impossible.
But there is a premise here—we go long, not to bet that it will definitely break through.
So a more stable thought is: when it reaches those previous highs, like around 74,000, it might be wise to take some profits.
Wait for the market heat to cool down, then see if there are opportunities to slowly position short orders at high levels.
As for going up further, I personally feel that the space won't be too large.
The reason is simple; this round actually hasn't seen much of a deep drop before.
Comparing to last year's situation, where prices dropped significantly from high points, there was ample space, and the rebounds later had explosive power.
But this time, from 68,000 to now, the overall decline has been limited; when the ceasefire occurred, the price was also around this level, indicating that the chips have not been fully washed out.
In other words, if the bottom isn't solid enough, the height of the rebound is usually limited.
Looking at some indicators, the current price can't be considered cheap.
The real bottom is often accompanied by a relatively obvious 'undervalued' state, but now such signals have basically been repaired.
If it goes up a bit more later, or even enters a higher range, it actually looks more like providing opportunities for the bears.
So at this position, it can be understood as—
Slightly on the high side, but still in the rebound process.
Operations can be simpler:
It's fine to follow the emotions and go long in the short term, but don't be too aggressive; just take the profits when you have them.
Because from the overall structure, the downward trend is still present,
This rebound is more like a pullback in the rhythm rather than a complete reversal.
As the price slowly approaches these pressure levels around 75,000 and 78,000,
considering opportunities to short will be more comfortable.
Overall, this wave of increase is more like giving you 'a better short position' rather than indicating that a new market has started.
On the opportunity side, there are several directions to focus on:
Firstly, AI + DePIN, projects like the $TAO subnet have decent income but low valuation, with the core issue being 'not available for purchase.' Once they get onto mainstream exchanges, there is great potential for valuation recovery, making it an ambush opportunity.
Secondly, in the RWA track, $ONDO is working on perpetual contract innovation, allowing tokenized stocks to be used as margin, which increases capital utilization. This product logic is a plus. In the short term, it’s still in a range oscillation, and a pullback near 0.24 offers better cost performance.
But the risks cannot be ignored:
$AAVE's current problem is not the price, but that 'the foundation is shaky.' The core lines of development, governance, and risk control have all exited consecutively, essentially indicating that the safety margin is decreasing. The biggest fear in DeFi is when the system coordination goes wrong; once a misstep occurs, it could lead to systemic risk.
$WLFI's gameplay is essentially the old routine: collateral—lending—re-collateralization in a high-leverage cycle. It's fine when the market is good, but once it drops, it can easily trigger a chain liquidation, ultimately evolving into a death spiral. Projects like this make money on trends but bear structural risks.
The market is recovering, but it hasn't reversed; there are opportunities, but the differentiation is very clear.
In the short term, look for the rhythm, don't chase highs; in the medium term, choose the track, focus on logic; for high-risk assets, avoid if possible.
The currency market is volatile, entering the market requires caution, personal views, no advice, for sharing only.