币圈小喵

This round of bull market should be the worst in the history of cryptocurrencies

1. General losses: In the first half of this year, most people lost money, and only a few people made profits. Many of the losers are old investors in the currency circle. Even if they have resources and capital, this bull market is particularly harsh, and many people cannot get out of the trap.

2. Collective panic: In the past, people thought that there would be a big bull market two or three months before and after the halving of BTC, but BTC almost finished rising last year. The same is true for altcoins. When everyone thinks the market is coming, it is actually over. After missing BTC, they collectively boarded altcoins, and the result was that there was no rise after boarding.

3. Collapse of altcoins: Many altcoins will return to zero. Unlike previous rounds of bull markets, today's consensus logic and investment standards have changed. Altcoins are no longer seen as opportunities, and many people are eliminated as a result. The consensus of altcoins collapsed, and no one paid after the inside story was exposed, and a rapid collapse occurred, burying many people.

4. VC consensus collapses: Investors no longer hold high respect and faith in venture capital, and their words and actions have very low trust.

5. Project entrepreneurship becomes more difficult: Project parties need to understand future trends, community needs, marketing and community operations, which are becoming increasingly difficult. There are fewer and fewer successful projects, and retail investors' trust in project parties is also decreasing, forming a vicious cycle.

6. Cryptocurrency dividends fade: The currency circle dividends fade, and everyone is eager to quickly obtain wealth freedom, which seems very anxious. After this round of bull market, many people are worried about their future in the circle.

7. Ideological change: This round of bull market has brought many changes in ideology and consensus forms, and everyone needs to re-understand the crypto circle. Don't be impatient, don't be discouraged, don't be happy too early, and don't lose the pattern.

8. Unexpected changes: This round of bull market will make many people's years of accumulation go to waste, and things you didn't expect will happen. After so many years of happiness, it's not too much to be sad once.

The cruelty and complexity of this bull market are unprecedented, reminding us to remain calm and rational in the pursuit of wealth.

AI leader $TAO welcomes its first halving this week, with daily output directly reduced from 7200 to 3600. 81% has been staked, and circulation is thin. After the halving, supply and demand will be tighter, and short-term sentiment is expected to strengthen.

Recently, the bankruptcy concept surged and then retreated. $LUNC, LUNA, FTT, etc., are being speculated based on news (upgrades, sentencing, trial nodes, etc.) with sentiment exploding, mostly belonging to impulse markets, and chasing highs is not recommended.

Today's highlights👇
1⃣ Major Thursday: FOMC interest rate decision + dot plot + Powell's press conference.
2⃣ TAO halving: officially halving on 12.14, total supply of 21 million, similar model to BTC.
3⃣ SEC actions: privacy and regulation roundtable on 12.15, focus on positive policy expectations.
4⃣ Bitcoin-native listed company is here: Cantor + Twenty One merger, landing on the NYSE on 12.9, code XXI.
5⃣ High-level pullback of bankruptcy concepts: previously boosted by events, the heat is clearly receding.
6⃣ Unlock warning: APT, LINEA, CHEEL will see large releases, with APT unlocking about $19.3 million.
7⃣ Robinhood expands into Southeast Asia, entering the Indonesian market, with crypto trading + brokerage business together.
8⃣ ASTR buyback upgrade: S4 will start on 12.10, with daily buybacks of about 4 million, and 60–90% of costs going towards buybacks.

The key this week is — FOMC and TAO halving. The sentiment in the bankruptcy sector is overstretched, watch for differentiation; liquidity is leaning towards strong main lines, and thematic rotation will be faster.
#加密市场观察

Last night, "Brother Ma Ji" had multiple positions liquidated at 2989, with both longs and shorts exploding, a typical bell ringing before a trend change.
In two days, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting to discuss interest rates, and a rate cut is highly likely; on the six-hour level, it is still on the right side of the trend line, and the volume is increasing, with solid support around 2900, and the bulls are not weak.

My own judgment is very simple: the market always has two sides, where there is darkness, there is light, where there is an increase, there is a decrease, and only after adjustment can the true trend emerge.

The warmth of this bull market has dissipated, and the altcoins are being washed away.
Chaotic projects can't hold on, and eventually, someone has to fall off the table.
This is painful, but it's also a good thing—only with the exit of worthless projects can funds flow back to truly promising directions.
The era of white papers painting grand visions and telling stories to deceive investors is slowly coming to an end.

🔍 Back to the ETH chart (6 hours)
The trend hasn't turned bad yet, but it's not strong enough to charge in blindly:
Still oscillating on the right side of the descending trend line → Not yet a new round of decline, but the bulls are not strong enough
Higher highs and lows → Structure remains intact
3250 met resistance and fell back, volume decreased, small body → Bulls are weak
3080 key support has been lost
Bears are gaining volume, and the decline hasn't stopped yet

📌 The moment the decline stops is the opportunity.
The trend hasn't turned bad, but the confirmation signal hasn't arrived—wait, no rush.
After the washout, there will be soil for the next market phase.

Here’s a little summary for today:
1. This weekend was simply a "negative impact package":
The 13 domestic ministries reiterated regulation, the Bank of Japan is hawkish and plans to raise interest rates, rumors of Powell stepping down early, and a chaotic list of candidates for Federal Reserve chair. Even MicroStrategy hinted at the possibility of selling coins in extreme situations.
A series of news items came one after another, and the market was directly hammered—privacy tokens were cut in half, new coins fell across the board, and even "king” coins like ZEC, MON, and IRYS could not withstand it.
2. The logic is actually very straightforward: tighter regulation → liquidity is drained → expectations become unstable → risk assets die first.
The Bank of Japan raising interest rates is the most lethal blow; once carry trade is reversed, institutions need to sell risk assets to exchange for yen, and such high-volatility assets in the crypto space are naturally the first to be cut.
3. The current market can be summed up in one sentence: if you don’t sell at the high point, the high point will sell you.
Don’t dream that new coins can hold their value; a week is considered extravagant, and it’s normal to secure profits in three days. The ones that can truly hold are always those three: BTC, ETH, SOL.
4. What about the other assets?
Run if you can; if you run slowly, you will become liquidity in others' eyes. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

The current market is in a cooling-off stage,
now even ZEC, which previously surged against the trend, has been halved, and the privacy sector has directly become the 'champion of weekend corrections': ZEC down 60%, DCR and DASH also starting at 20%; coupled with market makers being investigated, M and Sahara have been chopped into two segments.
No new coins can hold up, MON, as the first ICO of CB, was directly smashed by Arthur, causing the sentiment to collapse; the founder claims that no matter how strong the technology, it can’t save them, and the peak still gets halved; IRYS has also been sliding down, nearing its issue price. The recent rule for new coins can be summed up in one sentence: no matter how solid the background, how low the valuation, or how large the platform – if you dare to hold for a week, it dares to put you in deep trouble.
Next in line to be issued are MEGAETH, Stable, Base, ARC, SEA, and Polymarket, and it’s the same, don’t fantasize about holding long, if you need to run, just run, at most three days; beyond three days, you are basically just guarding for others. The only ones you can hold onto with peace of mind are BTC, ETH, and SOL, which have a moat; the rest are emotional coins, and once the heat is gone, they drop immediately.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

The current market is really hard to describe!

Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen again 📉, the secondary market is really tough
Alpha has raised the point threshold since mid-November, and the airdrop projects have decreased, so there isn't much to gain, as long as there's no loss, that's considered stable. I've already resigned! You all carry on, good luck to you
Now let's just play with new coins and enjoy, make a little money for some pig trotter rice $TST

$AUCTION Now An An Yao Coin is flying high! Recently, these small transactions are quite good, much better than Alpha. Alpha's little cat has stopped and is returning to the imitation.

$ETH phase rebound, this wave target sees 3400, if it encounters a pullback touching 2900, it can be withdrawn

$BANANAS31 continues empty empty empty

In the past few days, there haven't been any major movements in the market, but quite a few conspiracy theories are brewing, so everyone just take a look.
Currently, the 4-hour level is still gasping for breath, and the wounds from the last big drop haven't healed yet. The market's current expectation is for interest rate cuts and a halt to balance sheet reduction in December, which can indeed bring some liquidity, but it's hard to say how much will flow into risky assets.
As for altcoins, $GPS $NTRN $NEWT $PNUT$NIL have stabilized, and I consider this as buying 4 'lottery tickets', each worth 10,000 dollars, to see who takes off first.
$BTC $ETH mentioned yesterday that there would be a pullback, but the intensity wasn't as great as expected, and it is likely to consolidate around 87500, giving altcoins some room to rebound. So in the past few days, I've mainly been picking up altcoins at low prices.
Additionally, $STRK the 4-hour pullback is almost over, and in the short term, a rebound to 0.19 is expected.
#加密市场反弹

You all continue, I'll take my leave first! #加密市场反弹

It's come to an end, there's no point in playing anymore
This score can't be compared.

Looking at the rhythm of the altcoins, is the capital going to be drained by several mainstream coins?
It seems that a phase bottom is likely to emerge, the buying range for Bitcoin and Ethereum has arrived, and from here, choice is more important than effort!
$BTC
$ETH

I don't want to talk anymore!
Is the 255-point threshold for alpha a joke?
The pain intensifies!

Who says what this is for!
Breaking the low again, is Bitcoin and Ethereum really going to hit the bottom in April?

Is the market going to follow the old path of 18 years?
Yesterday, Bitcoin once again pierced the recent low of the past few months, and all three major U.S. stock indices exploded last night, with Bitcoin pulling back to 93,000, a typical double explosion route.
Today during the day, it was smashed back to 90,000, but buying pressure remained strong, pushing the price back up to 92,000. To truly stabilize, it needs to reach 94,000; otherwise, it may pull back at any time.
The current market situation is completely different from the beginning of the year:
At that time, interest rate cuts were a significant benefit, and institutions dared to buy even when prices fell; now, the first batch of cutting losses from data, funds flowing out, ETH treasury cutting projects, and major data's mnav collectively falling below 1, everyone is afraid of another hit.

Looking at the ETF, it continues to see net outflows: BTC 370 million, ETH 74 million, as long as this point doesn't change, the market could jump again at any time.
However, there is still good news: last night, the suspected 'Baron Whale' bought 10,000 BTC, such heavyweight capital usually doesn’t move around recklessly, perhaps there is good news to come shortly.
The FUD across the network is also becoming increasingly absurd: market makers losing money, second-tier CEX having issues, BG reserves abnormal... The market increasingly resembles the environment before the FTX/3AC explosion.
During this phase, absolutely avoid leverage, avoid heavy positions in altcoins, and avoid playing heroes. In a market with almost zero regulation, the essence of the game is that a few people harvest the majority.
Right now, just hold BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB steadily; everything else could send you to the altar at any time.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Follow this rhythm!
Can we still have a good year this year? $DOGE
$FET
$ZK

When can we get through the cold winter!