The market is in a phase of consolidation following geopolitical news. Bitcoin dropped below $71,000 amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but remains within a familiar range.
maximum $71,750
minimum $70,458
current price around $70,842
maximum $2,219
minimum $2,173
current price around $2,190
What did the market maker do
Let's break down the movement:
1️⃣ Broke above $71,500 on the weekend
→ Collected short liquidity before the news
2️⃣ Sharp drop to $70,450 on geopolitics
→ Activated long stops and created panic
3️⃣ Quick bounce to $70,850
→ Showed that there are few sellers, demand exists
This is a classic model:
➡️ Liquidation trap with news trigger
Now the phase begins:
👉 Testing buyers' reaction
Key BTC structure
A sideways channel is forming now:
lower zone
$70,200 – $70,500
upper zone
$71,500 – $72,000
The price is now $70,842 → at the lower end of the range
Where liquidity is now
From above:
$72,200
$73,000
$75,300
there: short stops, liquidations.
From below:
$69,800
$68,500
$67,000
there: long stops, liquidations.
‼️ Important: The bulk of liquidity is concentrated above current prices
Main scenario
Probability 65%.
MM will test the lower boundary of the channel, then turn up to liquidity.
Scenario:
70.2k → 71.8k → 73.5k
if squeeze turns on: 75.3k
Why:
BlackRock bought Bitcoin for $269 million as a hedge against geopolitical risks
Funding is close to zero — no overheating
Long/Short 1.16 — moderate skew
Alternative scenario
Probability 35%.
Scenario:
69.5k → 67.8k → 71.0k
and then a recovery to $72,000.
This will be:
➡️ Deep wash before growth
What is happening with ETH
Ethereum shows relative weakness — falling in sync with BTC but recovering slower. Long/Short 1.85 indicates overheating of longs.
Key levels:
support
$2,150
$2,100
resistance
$2,230
$2,280
If BTC goes up:
$ETH : 2200 → 2350
Very important hidden signal
Analysts see a "massive bearish flag" with resistance at 20 EMA. The price is squeezed between horizontal support and the moving average.
This means:
Classic consolidation before movement
The breakout will determine the direction for weeks
Historically, such patterns often end:
👉 Sharp movement towards breakout
My forecast for 24–48 hours
main scenario:
70.2k → 71.8k → 73.2k
if strengthening: 75.3k
alternative:
69.5k → 68.0k → 71.5k
ETH
likely range:
2150 → 2230 → 2350
Key thought
Geopolitics created volatility but did not break the structure. Institutions are using dips to buy — this is a bullish signal. Watch for a breakout at $72,000 or $69,500 — that's where real movement will begin. The market is like a compressed spring: the longer the consolidation, the stronger the shot will be.