📊 BITCOIN, MANIPULATIONS, AND OUR FAVORITE HAMSTERS: THE CRYPTO MARKET IS BACK IN THE GAME
A Preface with a Hint of Observation
Greetings, fellow swing traders.
If we look at it globally, the market has looked decent and stable for the past couple of weeks. Locally, however, it's all as we love: the same manipulations, the same swings that can only surprise the newcomers. The seasoned ones just sip their coffee and observe. Let's break down what is really happening.
1️⃣ Bitcoin, the USA, and Iran: geopolitics as a driver of swings
Last week BTC froze with a timid local attempt at growth. The story of the "ceasefire" between the USA and Iran provided a reason to slightly manipulate the market. But, as was obvious from the very beginning — there are no real agreements. Surprise? No.
The weekend set everything in its place: bitcoin has rolled back. As for geopolitics, you know the news yourself — everyone is pushing, everyone insists on their own, which means the fun continues. Which was, in general, expected.
2️⃣ A structural view of the BTC chart and MA lines (TF 1W)
Looking at the lines — and trying not to laugh.
The MA locally looks positive, but medium-term — frankly negative. A typical crypto gap.
Period Value Dynamics New knowledge Change % change.
ATH 126 199 ↔️ 126 199 0 0.0000
MA52 96 875 🔽 96 625 -250 -0.2581
MA104 86 650 🔼 86 725 75 0.0866
MA26 84 200 🔽 82 775 -1 425 -1.6924
PRICE 69 875 🔼 70 825 950 1,3596
MA4 68 200 🔼 69 150 950 1,3930
MA208 58 600 🔼 58 775 175 0,2986
MA312 50 525 🔼 50 725 200 0,3958
MA416 39 675 🔼 39 825 150 0,3781
🔍 What do we see (and what does it mean):
The MA lines continue to compress. It's like hugs before a good slap.
Local MA4 ($69 150) and MA26 ($82 775) are still far apart, but the gap is rapidly narrowing. About $13 000 — and we are closer to the medium-term resolution.
Local MA26 ($82 775) continues to crawl down, being below MA52 ($96 625) and below MA104 ($86 725).
A little push for BTC upward? Globally — nothing has changed. Beautiful, but useless.
Current verdict:
📍 Locally — neutral.
📍 Medium-term — negative.
📍 With a sense of humor — on.
🌐 Global view:
But the older MAs (208, 312, 416) are behaving modestly, but with positive dynamics. The long-term is still winning. We continue to observe and stock up on popcorn.
3️⃣ Psychology and emotions: our favorite circus
Oh, this is where the real fun begins.
Our dearly beloved and deeply respected hamsters have awakened. On the wave of manipulations, channels exploded with posts:
🚀 "Altseason 2026!"
📉 "The bottom for Bitcoin has been passed!"
🧠 "Everything is brilliant, it's time to buy!"
At the same time, it seemed that no one understood at all: this is just manipulation on the news. Honestly? We were not surprised at all. The market washes away those who act without thinking — with enviable regularity. That’s why we didn’t write anything last week. What’s the point? Everything rolled back by itself. The manipulation was successful. Bravo, maestro.
4️⃣ Public portfolio at $1100 (without drama)
Everything is stable. We haven’t touched anything. Sleeping peacefully.
💰 USDT — ~94% (1120)
🐶 DOGE — ~2.3% (287.16)
🔶 BNB — ~2.3% (0.0431)
⚡️ SOL — ~0.5% (0.079)
💎 XRP — ~0.5% (4.476)
🌀 ETH — ~0.3% (0.0016)
Total portfolio value: $1188
Changes — zero. Nerves — almost intact.
5️⃣ From life: crypto alliance, shorts, and no editing
And now a little less crypto, but honestly.
Plans for this week — recording SHORTS on YouTube. Yes, a different format, but it’s more convenient for us right now. Each thought — in a separate video. Wanted — recorded. Wanted — posted. Editing? No, we haven't heard of it. Maximum — we will cut the "flaws", and that out of respect for the viewer.
Why is that? We have already said: the idea of creating a crypto Alliance has been brewing for a long time. And now is a great time to work and build an audience. Even in such a sluggish, negative, but painfully familiar crypto market.
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