Explosion! #ETH Trapped in a Key Muddy Pit, Can MACD Divergence Reverse the Destiny?
I believe that today ETH is at a critical junction of fierce long and short battles. On the four-hour chart, 3940 is the core price level, with EMA7 and EMA30 nearly overlapping, and the price fluctuating repeatedly, facing a directional decision in the short term. Recently, there has been significant selling pressure around 3980, but 3900 has supportive funds.
In terms of technical indicators, MACD divergence suggests that the downward momentum is weakening, and a rebound may come, while RSI shows a temporary balance of long and short forces, and trading volume is sluggish, with large funds on the sidelines and retail trading dominating, limiting price fluctuations.
At critical positions, 3980 - 4000 is the upper resistance level, and a breakout is needed to open up upside space; 3900 is the short-term lifeline, and 3800 is an important support. If it stabilizes above 3940 USD in the short term, one can cautiously try going long, but if it breaks below 3900, be alert for a downward probe; for medium-term bottom fishing, wait for a volume-triggered stop-loss signal to appear around 3800 - 3850.
Overall, ETH today is like a patient just out of ICU and not fully recovered; although there is MACD divergence support, insufficient trading volume limits the strength of the rebound. A real trend reversal requires Bitcoin to stabilize above 115000 and ETH to break out with volume above 4000. Today, it is very likely to fluctuate between 3900 - 4000, with the trading volume at the opening of the US market being key. In the current market, it is advisable to avoid chasing highs and killing lows; controlling positions is more important than directional judgments. Small funds can play short-term, while large funds should wait for clear direction.
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