ETH Market Analysis
From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands show a downward opening pattern, with the middle line also trending downwards, corresponding to a clear bearish trend characteristic. The current price range corresponding to the three Bollinger Bands is 4762.79 (upper band) — 4249.25 (middle band) — 3735.71 (lower band). The price has continuously declined after breaking below the middle band and is currently operating near the lower band at 3735.71. Although it is temporarily supported by the lower band and has not broken below it, the opening has not narrowed, and the trend remains bearish.
In the short term, the MA moving averages show a typical bearish alignment, with MA5 and MA10 both trending downwards, and the price has fallen below MA5 and is far below MA20 and MA50, operating below all short-term moving averages, further confirming the continuation of the downtrend. There are no signs of reversal in the moving average system; a short-term rebound must first stand above MA5 to preliminarily release a momentum conversion signal.
MACD Indicator: The 4-hour chart is below the 0 axis, with both lines trending downwards. Although bearish energy is at a high level, it has not further amplified, indicating that the short-term selling momentum has slightly slowed down, but no golden cross or upward crossing of the 0 axis has formed, signaling insufficient rebound.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 is currently at 15.88, in the extreme oversold range, while RSI6 is even lower at 10.84. Both lines show weak upward signs after a death cross, corresponding to the repair demand after the short-term over-sell, indicating a slight rebound possibility.
Going Long: The price stabilizes near 3735.71 (lower band), and RSI14 rises from 15.88 to above 20, while the trading volume increases by more than 30% compared to the previous period. Entry point: 3750-3780 range. Stop loss set below 3700 USD. Take profit targets: ① First target 3890 USD (near resistance level, close to MA5, realize 50% position); ② Second target 4060 USD (next resistance level, if the MACD histogram decreases, then exit all).
Going Short: When rebounding to around 4060 USD, RSI14 reaches above 50 and MACD has not formed a golden cross (momentum exhaustion + trend unchanged); Entry point: 4040-4060 USD range; Stop loss setting: above 4120 USD (breakthrough of next resistance level + confirmation of MACD golden cross, stop loss margin about 2%); Take profit target: 3800 USD retesting near support level, risk-reward ratio about 1:3.
Due to the time difference in article review and promotion, the points mentioned in the text are for reference only.
October 20, 2025 $ETH
