This wave of market movement is actually not far from the 'harvest time'.
Structurally, Bitcoin's current rebound is likely to encounter strong resistance around 78,000. This area is both a previous dense cost zone and a profit-taking expectation for many bulls. Once touched, it can easily lead to concentrated profit-taking, and the probability of the market weakening is not small.
The recent market rhythm is very clear — completely driven by news. Especially with the repeated negotiations between the US and Iran, any slight movement immediately causes price fluctuations. This morning, news of the resumption of negotiations emerged again, and the price was directly pulled up. In this environment, retail investors find it hard to predict and can only adjust according to the rhythm instead of stubbornly holding a direction.
If the price is still around 70,000, it is actually more suitable for low-cost long positions, but now it has reached 75,000, gradually approaching the strong resistance area above, and the cost-effectiveness has clearly decreased. Chasing long positions at this level carries a very high risk if stuck at high positions. Therefore, rather than taking risks, it is better to wait and observe.
Another key point is 'expectation realization.' Currently, the price has already reflected the positive effects of a ceasefire in advance; if subsequent news truly materializes, it may instead lead to a trend of good news being fully priced in, followed by a retreat. Especially if the price does not rise but falls after the news materializes, it is necessary to be alert to a market reversal and even consider looking for short opportunities.
Yesterday's thought was to connect this wave to a small top: close to 78,000, observe in batches for any signs of weakness before considering placing short orders. If it successfully retraces, the first target is likely to return to the lower edge of the range around 69,000; if it breaks below, the adjustment space may be further opened up.
Yesterday, BTC and ETH surged and then retreated simultaneously, with the daily line showing a long upper shadow with increased volume, indicating significant selling pressure above and a short-term breakout failure, which basically confirms that this round of rebound has encountered phase resistance. After mainstream cryptocurrencies weakened, altcoins quickly came under pressure, transitioning from passive recovery to collective decline, returning to the pattern of 'mainstream strong, altcoins weak.' It can be seen that altcoins do not have an independent market; they mostly follow the mainstream rhythm. Once core assets shift, funds immediately retreat, and selling pressure is released more quickly and forcefully.
Specifically, $TAO has already formed a typical double top structure and has broken below the neckline, entering a bear-dominated phase in terms of trend. As long as the price cannot re-establish itself above the neckline, the overall trend still leans towards further downward movement; if it rebounds to the vicinity of the neckline later, it may become a new short opportunity.
Looking at the market sentiment, for high-control targets like 'Binance Life,' the on-chain chip concentration is extremely high, and slight fluctuations can lead to large liquidations. A $20 million long position was forcibly closed in the early morning, which also indicates that the current depth is sufficient, and funds are always capable of taking profits back and forth. Coupled with news disturbances, such as key figures speaking or live streaming, it often leads to a trend of 'good news being fully priced in, leading to bad news.' Caution is necessary.
$RENDER Currently operating in a key position, the price fluctuates around the 200-day moving average (about $2.10). This moving average has repeatedly suppressed upward movement this year; if it can stabilize above this level with increased volume, it will truly open up upward space; otherwise, it will still be regarded as range-bound fluctuations. The current structure resembles a compression and consolidation process, where the price is no longer clearly declining, but has also not broken through for a while, indicating that selling pressure is gradually being digested. Once there is an increase in volume later, the directional choice will be clearer.
Overall, the market has re-entered a phase of speculation, with the mainstream determining the rhythm while altcoins follow the fluctuations. The current position is more of a 'risk zone' rather than a comfortable entry point. The rebound opportunity at lower levels has already been taken, and this phase is more suitable for controlling the rhythm, observing more and acting less. Once the direction is clarified again, it won't be too late to take action.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, entry requires caution, personal opinions, not advice, for sharing purposes only.