The market is in a consolidation phase after yesterday's breakout attempt. Bitcoin briefly exceeded the key level of $76,000 yesterday but then reversed and dropped below $74,000.
maximum $76,009
minimum $73,767
current price around $73,983
maximum $2,416
minimum $2,302
current price around $2,318
What did the market maker do
Let's break down the movement:
1️⃣ Break upward to $76,000
→ MM collected liquidity of shorts above the market
2️⃣ Sharp reversal to $73,800
→ Took profit and tested support
3️⃣ Stabilization around $74,000
→ Preparing for the next move
This is a classic model:
➡️ False breakout with liquidation
Now begins the phase:
👉 Accumulation before the decisive move
Key structure of BTC
A trading range is currently forming:
lower zone
$73,500 – $74,200
upper zone
$75,500 – $76,200
The price is now $73,983 → at the lower end of the range
Where is the liquidity now
From above:
$76,200
$78,000
$80,500
there: stop losses of shorts, liquidations.
From below:
$72,500
$70,000
$68,000
there: stop losses of longs, liquidations.
‼️ Important: Funding rates have remained negative for 46 days in a row, indicating a predominance of bearish positions
Main scenario
Probability 65%.
Such prolonged periods of negative funding have historically preceded sharp upward movements
Scenario:
74.0k → 76.5k → 80.0k
if a squeeze occurs: 82.0k
Why:
A cluster of shorts creates fuel for growth
Open Interest is rising, indicating the addition of new short positions
Negative funding for 46 days — an extreme value
Alternative scenario
Probability 35%.
Scenario:
73.5k → 70.0k → 68.0k
and then a bounce to $75,000.
This will be:
➡️ Final capitulation before the rise
What is happening with ETH
$ETH is trading bearish on the daily chart, the price is significantly below the moving averages. MACD remains negative, but CRSI shows oversold at 26.51.
Key levels:
support
$2,106
$2,000
resistance
$2,400
$2,500
If BTC goes up:
ETH: $2,400 → $2,600
Very important hidden signal
The 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 46 days in a row, corresponding to periods of market stress in the past
This means:
Extreme bearish positioning
The market is ready for a reversal
Historically, such periods often end:
👉 Sharp rises and squeezes of shorts
My forecast for 24–48 hours
main scenario:
74k → 76k → 78k
if the increase: 80k
alternative:
73k → 70k → 72k
ETH
likely range:
2300 → 2400 → 2500
Key thought
The $75,000 level for Bitcoin is critical — there is a negative gamma zone where dealer hedging could amplify volatility in either direction. The market resembles a compressed spring: 46 days of negative funding have created ideal conditions for a squeeze. Be ready for sharp moves — when the crowd is maximally bearish, smart money is getting ready to buy.