The flow of wholecoiners on the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange has decreased to a level not seen since 2018, reflecting a structural change in the interactions of large holders with the market.

This slowdown coincides with recent signals from Donald Trump regarding diplomatic cooperation with Chinese President Xi Jinping concerning the Hormuz Strait, which supports an already tight supply picture in the global market

Wholecoiner flow is at its lowest in years

The volume of transactions sending at least 1 BTC to the exchanges has decreased significantly, with the monthly average on Binance being around 6,000 BTC, much lower than the 15,400 BTC figure in 2021

Looking at a global level, the picture becomes clearer, with the transfer of at least 1 BTC to the exchanges dropping to about 27,500 BTC compared to the peak of 80,000 BTC in 2018

There are several factors that explain this trend. Higher prices are making it increasingly difficult to hold full Bitcoin, which is causing the number of wholecoiners to decrease over time

The expansion of trading platforms and the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 also opens up opportunities for investors to access the market without holding BTC directly

More holders seem to be focusing on long-term strategies, which has also led to a further decline in exchange activity

Darkfost noted that the decline of wholecoiners moving on the exchanges reflects a diminishing selling pressure and a gradually changing market structure, as a larger share of the supply is starting to become more illiquid over time

Short-term holders are taking profits while short sellers are ramping up their positions

While long-term holders are starting to slow down their activities, short-term holders (STH) are clearly moving in the opposite direction

As BTC tests the 75,000 USD level, short-term holders (STHs) have sent over 65,000 BTC to the exchanges within 24 hours, of which 61,000 BTC were transferred to lock in profits

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the derivatives market is preparing for potential short-squeeze selling pressure, with funding rates turning negative as total positions increase, indicating that traders are over-leveraging on the short side as BTC tests the third resistance

...as long as BTC remains above 72,000 USD, I will not be worried, and I will look for long opportunities rather than short ones, the analyst wrote

He stated that the next resistance will be between 85,000 and 88,000 USD if the 75,000 level is broken

On the other hand, data researcher Axel Adler Jr. emphasized that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear index has flipped back above zero and has passed the bearish zone

However, he warns that the network profit-loss situation remains below average, viewing this adjustment as a recovery rather than a new upward trend